First of all, the primary requirement for any player discussed is that they must have been at least 30 years old at the start of the 2010 MLB season. That does not mean every 30+ player with at least a minimal chance of reaching the Hall-of-Fame will be discussed. Certain players, such as 31-year old Brandon Webb, are not included, as his situation is currently too murky to adequately project into the future. A number of players over the age of 30 have been excluded due to the fact that their careers are still very young and have not accumulated enough playing time for me to predict the possibility of them being worthy of the Hall-of-Fame. Additionally, a player must not have officially retired. Therefore, a player such as Carlos Delgado, who despite not playing thus far in 2010, but has not yet announced his retirement, is eligible.

The biggest issue regarding the forthcoming Hall-of-Fame debates is the question I am asking. That question is precisely: do I believe that when this player retires, their on-the-field career, statistics, and accomplishments will be worthy of a Hall-of-Fame induction. This is instrumental to understanding the debates. The question is NOT: will this player ACTUALLY BE inducted into the Hall-of-Fame. In order to understand the distinction between this question and the question I am asking, just consider a number of players: Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens….you get the point. I’m not here to speculate on the vague issue of steroids. Additionally, a player such as Roberto Alomar is another example. I still believe Alomar had a HOF-worthy career, despite the fact that, in 2009, his first year on the ballot, he fell 8 votes short of getting elected and is still not currently a Hall-of-Famer for whatever inane reasoning. I am only analyzing what the player has accomplished on the field and the impact their play has had over the course of their careers.

Additionally, the question is NOT: is this player currently a Hall-of-Famer. For the vast majority of the players debated, the answer will obviously be no. How a player projects over the remainder of their career is instrumental in the debate as to whether or not they will be worthy of the Hall-of-Fame upon retirement.

Now that the basics have been established, I’ve identified twelve players who I believe have established surefire Hall-of-Fame caliber resumes based on what they’ve already accomplished. Most of these are self-explanatory, however, I’ve included a brief explanation of the twelve players that I won’t discuss due to the fact that I feel they’ve already created Hall-of-Fame resumes. They are, as follows:

1. Ken Griffey, Jr., OF, Mariners, Reds, White Sox

This one literally needs no explanation. He already announced his retirement midseason, but he finished 5th all-time in HRs with 630, top-15 all-time in RBIs, a 13-time All-Star, a 10-time Gold Glove winner. He was one of the greatest defensive centerfielders of all-time, and perhaps the most iconic and best pure hitter of the 1990s. The most unquestionable Hall-of-Famer of all active players at the start of the 2010.

2. Alex Rodriguez, SS/3B, Mariners, Rangers, Yankees

He’s currently one HR shy of 600, currently placing him at 7th all-time. He’s top-20 all-time in RBIs, a 3-time MVP, and a 13-time All-Star. He also just turned 35 and is still one of the best hitters in the league. When it’s all said and done, he could finish as the all-time HR leader in addition to reaching 3,000 hits (he currently has 2,629), 2,000 runs (he currently has 1,733), and stealing over 300 bases. There is the issue of steroids, but if we’re discussing strictly what he’s accomplished on the field, there is no question he’s had a Hall-of-Fame caliber career and may retire as one of the the five most accomplished hitters of all-time.

3. Manny Ramirez, OF, Indians, Red Sox, Dodgers

Like A-Rod, there are some serious off-the-field issues, including a suspension last season for testing positive for a banned substance as well as questions about his character and his ability to be a good teammate. However, his production cannot be denied. Perhaps the most consistent, diabolical hitter following the declines of Frank Thomas and Ken Griffey, Jr., he has amassed 554 HR, 1,827 RBI, 2,500+ hits, in addition to a .311 AVG and a 1.000 OPS. He also led the Red Sox to two World Series titles. His defense was always a liability, but he maintained a good arm in LF, and either way, it doesn’t come close to negating his career as one of the most feared and successful hitters of the last 20 years.

4. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals

Though he hasn’t amassed the career numbers of Griffey, A-Rod, or Manny, there is no doubt Pujols is already a Hall-of-Famer even if his career ended at the end of his 10th season. In just under ten years, he has 389 HRs (the most ever in a player’s first ten seasons), 1,182 RBI, an incredible 877/619 BB/K rate, a .331/.425/.623 batting line, a WS ring, 3 MVP awards and 4 MVP runner-up finishes, and is just shy of 2,000 hits. His accomplishments from 2001-10 may be the greatest of any player in any decade and he has cemented himself as the undisputed best player in baseball. The voters look for lengthy peaks of dominance and he’s already created a HOF-worthy one, even if he is mediocre for the rest of his career (fat chance).

5. Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees

He has created the ultimate storybook Hall-of-Fame career, with his tremendous poise, leadership, defensive prowess, along with five World Series rings and countless big plays and hits throughout his storied post-season career as a New Jersey-native and the most iconic Yankee since Mickey Mantle. If the intangibles weren’t enough, Jeter also has 2,862 hits and will have no problem reaching the illustrious 3,000 hit mark before his retirement. He’s also an 11-time All-Star with a .313 lifetime AVG, 300+ SB, and has scored over 1,600 runs. He’s been a model of consistency, never hitting below .290 in 15 full seasons and becoming one of the best all-around shortstops to ever play the game.

6. Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves

Although not as illustrious and lacking multiple World Series rings, Chipper’s career has somewhat paralleled Jeter’s. He spent his entire career with the Braves as their team leader and figurehead, reaching the playoffs on an almost-perennial basis and building an all-time great postseason resume. In addition to that, he’s one of the five greatest switch-hitters of all-time, has 433 career HR, .306 AVG, .405 OBP, more walks than strikeouts, and is nearing 2,500 hits (2,475). He’s been a modest, though consistent fielder throughout his career, and a model of consistency at the plate. In 13 seasons from 1996-08, he hit .305 or better 10 times, 25+ HRs 10 times, and drove in 100+ runs 9 times. He may not reach 500 HR, but it doesn’t diminish his HOF-caliber resume, given his all-around success as a hitter and an intangible team leader and perennial post-season producer.

7. Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Expos, Angels, Rangers

In 15 seasons in the majors, Vlad has amassed 427 HR, 1,395 RBI, and a lifetime .321 AVG. He won the MVP in 2004, has been elected to 9 All-Star teams, fell one HR shy of a 40/40 season in 2002, and is closing in on 2,500 career hits (2,362). Prior to last season’s injury-riddled campaign, he had12 straight years of 25 or more HRs and a .300 or better AVG, while becoming arguably the most dangerous hitter in baseball. Though his walk rate was never great (despite a lifetime .385 OBP), he cemented his legacy as being able to destroy any pitch located anywhere near the strikezone, whether above the chest or below the knees. He may have one of the strongest sets of wrists of any hitter of all-time, in addition to having one of the greatest arms in right field – gunning down 128 baserunners in his career (second to only Bobby Abreu among active RFs, despite far less playing time). He also owns the 14th best SLG of all-time.

8. Jim Thome, 1B/3B, Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Dodgers, Twins

Thome is the modern-day Harmon Killebrew, who, of course, was an unquestionable Hall-of-Famer in his own right. While he has evolved into a one-dimensional power hitter who can also still draw walks as he nears the twilight of his career, he was more than just a guy who can hit HRs. But first, it must be acknowledged that, as a HR hitter, he has been more prolific over the course of his career than the likes of Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, Frank Thomas, and Killebrew himself, as he currently sits as 10th all-time. His lifetime AVG of .277 is solid, if unimpressive, but it’s also a number that has naturally and steadily declined as he’s passed his prime. His AVG hovered around .290 prior to his age-32 season. He’s also 10th all-time in walks drawn and top-25 all-time in SLG and OPS. In addition to being one of the greatest natural HR hitters of all-time, he’ll finish his career with over 1,500 runs scored, 2,000 hits, and 1,600 walks.

9. Ivan Rodriguez, C, Rangers, Marlins, Tigers, Yankees, Astros, Nationals

The two greatest, most iconic, and most consistent catchers of this generation were Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez. For what Pudge lacked in terms of Piazza’s power, he made up for with superior defense and all-around talent. Both players helped redefine the catching position as a more offensive-oriented position in today’s game, while Pudge will go down as one of the greatest game managers of all-time, in addition to having one of the greatest arms of all-time behind the plate, as evidenced by him leading the league 9 times in CS%. He is also 1st all-time in games caught and putouts. Though he’ll likely fall short of 3,000 hits, his 2,777 hits as a catcher is remarkable and his .298 AVG is Hall-of-Fame worthy at the catcher position. In his nine-year peak from 1996-2004, he hit 19 or more HR 8 times, drove in 77 or more runs 7 times, batted over .300 8 times, and posted some of the greatest single-season offensive numbers ever seen from the catching position (though, there is some speculation regarding steroid use) – en route to winning the MVP in 1999. Given his contact-hitting abilities, his solid power (a solid 306 career HRs in addition to being 21st all-time in doubles) and his defensive abilities as one of the all-time greats, he has an undisputed HOF-worthy resume.

10. Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners

If we included his numbers in Japan, prior to joining the Mariners in 2001, Ichiro would be as slam-dunk a Hall-of-Famer as Ken Griffey, Jr. However, he didn’t join the majors until 2001 at the age of 27. He and Pujols began their careers at the very same time, and both have redefined the game and have become the very best at what they do in the past decade. If Pujols is the pre-eminent power hitter over the last decade, then Ichiro is the pre-eminent contact hitter. In each of his first 9 full seasons, he accumulated over 200 hits and is on pace to do so again for a tenth straight season in 2010. No player is even close to his 2,157 hits over the past decade. It comes as no surprise that he also has a whopping .331 career AVG and topped 100 runs in every season prior to 2009. Additionally, he’s racked up 364 stolen bases, 70 triples, and may be the best RF – considering range and arm strength – since Roberto Clemente. He’s been voted an All-Star and won a Gold Glove every season he’s been in the league, in addition to earning a ROY and MVP. The one knock is his lifetime OBP of .377 is merely adequate for a leadoff hitter, but his ability to turn routine groundouts into base hits is second-to-none. Additionally, despite only modest HR totals, scouts says he has 20+ HR power perennially, but focuses on getting singles and doubles in game situations given his role as leadoff hitter. Even if his career ended today, his star power, charisma, and uncanny abilities as one of the most dominant contact hitters and right fielders of all-time would be good enough for a Hall-of-Fame worthy career.

11. Mariano Rivera, CL, Yankees

Like Griffey, this is self-explanatory. Say what you want about the closer position, Rivera is the greatest all-time – and it’s not even close – and as easy as it seems to record three outs at the end of the game, while Rivera has dominated at doing so for over a decade, we’ve seen hundreds who have struggled at doing the very same job Rivera has excelled at with unparalleled success. The numbers speak for themselves: 547 career saves (2nd all-time), adjusted ERA+ of 206 (best all-time for any pitcher), 3.973 K/BB rate (4th best all-time for any pitcher), a 2.21 career ERA and 1.00 WHIP (3rd all-time for any pitcher). If that wasn’t enough – the accolades are unmatched as a reliever: 11-time All-Star, 5-time WS champion, a WS MVP winner in 1999, the most postseason saves (39), the best all-time post-season ERA (0.74), and longest consectutive scoreless innings streak in postseason history. He’s also honed his cut fastball, which may go down as the most unhittable pitch of all-time.

12. Trevor Hoffman, CL, Marlins, Padres, Brewers

He’s the only man in baseball history to record more saves than Rivera, sitting 1st all-time with 596 saves. Though not as dominant nor possessing anywhere near the post-season resume of Rivera, Hoffman is a 7-time All-Star and put together one of the greatest peaks of any closer all-time. In 13 full seasons (one lost due to injury) from 1996-2009, he recorded 37 or more saves 12 times, posted a sub-3.00 ERA 11 times, and averaged more than 1 K/IP 8 times (including 7 straight times from 1996-2002). Hoffman was a premier stopper for over a decade, unlike the journeyman, numbers-compiler Lee Smith, whom he overtook for the all-time saves lead. His 3.74 K/BB rate and 1.05 WHIP are further testaments to a Hall-of-Fame career that produced the most prolific closer of all-time.

13. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals

No, I’m only kidding.

There are the 12 active players (Griffey included) who I consider surefire Hall-of-Famers at this point in their careers and therefore are not worth including in the upcoming Hall of Fame debates. One interesting note about the 12 players I believe are already Hall-of-Famers is that none of them are starting pitchers. I should’ve likely included Pedro Martinez on this as he has not officially retired and did pitch last season with the Phillies. However, I believe the fact that he hasn’t started throwing yet this season and has generated no interest by any team to do so has solidified the notion that he will never pitch again. Of course, if he were considered “active,” he would be included in this list of surefire Hall-of-Famers.

I have listed 40 players to debate whether or not they’ll produce Hall-of-Fame caliber resumes by the time they retire. The order in which I will discuss each player’s Hall-of-Fame prospects is to be determined based on which player’s case I find particularly interesting at the time; there is no pattern to the players I choose. I will analyze each upcoming player’s career, statistics, intangibles, comparables, and how they project into the future, before rendering a final yes or no answer as to whether or not I believe they retire with whatever constitutes a “Hall-of-Fame worthy” career. As always, debate is encouraged.

The vaunted starting rotationg regressed. Ryan Dempster had a solid season, but it was far off from his 2008 career year. Carlos Zambrano had arguably his least productive year as a starter. Rich Harden stayed relatively healthy at the expense of being merely mediocre. The bullpen also struggled. Kevin Gregg imploded as closer, but not before costing the Cubs a handful of wins. The lineup, sans Derrek Lee, was also a major bust. Alfonso Soriano struggled to stay healthy and looked lost at the plate at times, en route to his worst offensive season. Aramis Ramirez spent extensive time on the DL. Geovany Soto redefined the sophomore slump. Kosuke Fukudome proved he was a bust. And let us not forget, how terribly awry the Milton Bradley experiment went.

The Cubs had a lot go wrong in 2009, but they’re not necessarily in for an overhaul. Soriano should bounce back at full strength next season – not that it matters, because his contract makes him immovable. Lee and Ramirez are still offensive cornerstones to build around and Theriot gives them a quality leadoff man. The rotation is also pretty good shape, and despite Gregg’s implosion, it facilitated Carlos Marmol’s rise to closer. This offseason, the Cubs will need to decide what to do with the Milton Bradley discussion, patch up the outfield and add another power bat, and figure out a way to add another top-of-the-rotation starter.

As a result, these are the moves I would make this offseason if I were Jim Hendry…

The 2010 Chicago Cubs Fantasy GM

1. Cut OF Milton Bradley

The Cubs need to admit they screwed up and move on. It was a costly mistake, too. The Cubs gave Bradley a 3-year, $30 million deal last offseason and backloaded the contract so that they still owe him $21 million. Not only was he absolutely awful at the plate (.257, 12 HR, 40 RBI), but he was even worse in the clubhouse. He’s managed to alienate management, the coaching staff, most of his teammates, and most importantly, the fans. He’s proven to be a cancer in the clubhouse and personified everything that went wrong for the Cubs in 2009. In an ideal world, he’d apologize and patch things up, but there’s nothing in his track record that would indicate that level of maturity and unfortunately, most of the damage he’s done is probably irreversible. The other ideal alternative is trading him, but even if I try to play Jim Hendry in the most favorable light possible, there is absolutely no way anyone would take on his contract. The only option here is to abort the mission and eat the loss. This signing will likely go down as one of the most ignominious contracts in recent history. The Cubs have to no other choice but to move on. On the bright side, his presence in both the lineup and the clubhouse is easily replaceable. I’d cut him loose and wash my hands of him immediately.

2. Trade OF Jake Fox, 1B/OF Micah Hoffpauir, SP Tom Gorzelanny, & RP Aaron Heilman for OF Adam Dunn & RP Mike MacDougal

The Cubs need a serious boost in the lineup. Dunn has his deficiencies, but he is almost guaranteed to give you 40 HRs and 100 RBIs. He strikeouts a ton, but he’s not as bad of a contact hitter as people make him out to be and he’s also capable of drawing walks. Dunn would give the Cubs a legitimate power hitter, protection for Derrek Lee in the #3 spot, and a serious upgrade to Milton Bradley in RF. Dunn isn’t the swiftest fielder and with he and Soriano in the corner spots, the defense could get dicey, but it’s manageable if they bring in a center fielder who can cover a lot of ground. Considering the offensive upgrade, consistency, and reliability, it’s a good trade-off. They’d also add MacDougal, who was a surprisingly (possibly fluky) serviceable closer for the Nats last season. He’s done well as a late inning reliever in the past and isn’t too old to have a mini-career revival. He could continue to have success in the NL in a mid-relief role. Fox and Hoffpauir are solid hitting prospects, but both of them are already in their late twenties and it doesn’t seem as if either can crack the starting lineup on a daily basis in Chicago. Both have 20 HR capability, but they’ve both struggled to hit for contact. They both still have the potential to be solid everyday players, but the Cubs aren’t in the position to wait for them to develop in the majors. Heilman still has some upside and versatility as a pitcher, but he was given minimal responsibility as a Cub last season. Gorzelanny has had a precipitious fall since his days as the Pirates ace. He was a throw-in the Cubs’ deal to add John Grabow at midseason and held his own in his handful of starts with the Cubs, but there’s no place for him in the rotation or the bullpen with Sean Marshall already filling the lefty long man spot. The Cubs are giving a bunch of former highly-rate prospects, but the four of them combined did not make the impact Dunn would’ve had if the Cubs had him in the heart of their lineup last season.

3. Trade OF Kosuke Fukudome, IF Mike Fontenot, Ps Jeff Stevens & Jeremy Papelbon to Diamondbacks for OF Eric Byrnes, 1B/OF Conor Jackson, & RP Chad Qualls

There may be no player more in need of a change of scenery than Kosuke Fukudome. Whether the Cubs are winning or losing, he’s been drawing the brunt of the criticism. He’s essentially become a part-time platooner at $13 million per season. However, conceding that he has no business facing lefties, he actually hasn’t been atrocious. He’s overpriced, certainly, but he’s decent defensively, can draw walks, and showed more pop in 2009. It just doesn’t appear that he’ll ever be the #2 hitter the Cubs thought he’d be. Trading him, along with Fontenot, who has pretty good offensive upside despite his struggles this season, and two modest pitching prospects should be able to net them an equally-overpriced outfielder, the Diamondbacks former top prospect 1B on the verge of being non-tendered, and a new set-up man. Byrnes is entering the final year of an ill-fated 3-year, $30 million deal, in which he played in 132 games and barely hit .200 in the first two years of his contract. However, if healthy, he would give the Cubs a centerfielder with tremendous range and speed and a quality base stealer at the bottom of the lineup. Conor Jackson has the potential to be a Lyle Overbay-type doubles hitter, but he’s struggled with his health and has essentially been phased out in Arizona. However, he’s still young enough to salvage his career. He can hit for average, plays pretty good defense, and can even handle the outfield in a pinch. Finally, Chad Qualls held his own as the Diamondbacks’ closer for most of this season and would give the Cubs a quality, veteran set-up man to provide a bridge to Marmol. Qualls could also step-in as closer if Marmol struggles. The Cubs and Diamondbacks would swap overpaid outfielders in Byrnes and Fukudome, swap former highly-rated hitting prospects in Fontenot and Jackson, and the Cubs would get a quality veteran reliever for two relief prospects, further helping the Diamondbacks’ youth movement.

4. Sign SP Ben Sheets

It may seem like a lateral move going from Rich Harden to Ben Sheets; it’s not. Harden has shown he can dominate in small doses and not much more; Sheets, when healhy, can be a frontline starter and a workhorse. In 2008, he was in the discussion for the NL Cy Young (31 GS, 13 wins, 5 CG, 3 SHO, 3.09 ERA) before a late-season injury cut his season short. He missed all of 2009 rehabbing a torn flexor muscle, but he’s had more than ample time to rehab it and he says is more than ready to pitch in 2010. All the reports thus far have been more than favorable and it looks like he’ll be ready to be re-inserted into a rotation at the start of next season. There are definitely lingering concerns - especially given that he’s only topped 24 starts once in the last five years – but given his well rested and rehabbed throwing arm, the Cubs should be able to at least squeeze out a full season of starts in 2010, and perhaps get the Ben Sheets of 2008 at a discounted rate. It’s hard to project just how effective he’ll be and if he can hold up, but given his track record, he’s worth the gamble. The Cubs can pay him to be their #4, when in all actuality, if he is fully healthy, he could be the best pitcher on the team. The Cubs need another frontline starter. They missed out on Peavy and there’s no one else of that caliber available without a serious injury concern. If Sheets is hurt, he’ll probably be useless (but relatively cheap), but if he’s healthy, he could be the missing piece in the rotation. I’d give him a deal similar to the one I suggested for Bedard: a one-year deal worth roughly $6 million with a team option for about $12 million in 2011. There’s no way any team gives him a multiyear deal without Sheets pitching in the majors in almost two years.

5. Sign SS Orlando Cabrera; move Ryan Theriot to 2B

Cabrera was one of the sparkplugs for the Twins that gave them their late-season push to usurp the Tigers in the AL Central this season. Cabrera struggled mightily in the first half of the season in the punchless A’s lineup, but heated up in the second half. He finished with numbers we’ve come to expect from the reliable shortstop: .282/9/77/13. He was a little sloppy at SS defensively this season, but still exudes great range at 35. He also hit 40 points higher in the second half, showing he wasn’t worn down. He’s a good veteran presence, whose all-around numbers won’t blow you away, but he seems to do everything well – he’s an intangibles-type. It’s no coincedence he’s usually on playoff contenders. The Cubs could use a refreshingly reliable middle infielder to pair with Theriot. Cabrera would also give them a top-of-the-order hitter to set the table for the big bats. Given his age, I’d offer Cabrera a 2-year, $12 million deal.

6. Re-sign RP John Grabow

Grabow has become one of the most consistent late-inning left-handed relievers and one who is also capable of getting out righties. He was drowning in anonymity in Pittsburgh until the Cubs acquired him at midseason. He’s not overpowering nor is his K/BB rate impressive, but he’s just the type of pitcher who can get the job done when he needs to. He can be used to mix-and-match against pinch-hitters, can fill-in as a middle reliever, and can even close in a pinch once in awhile if need be. The Cubs should be able to bring him back fairly cheaply – given his free agent designation, whoever signs him will likely have to forfeit a draft pick. Last season, the same thing happened to Juan Cruz, who was avoided like the plague for much of the offseason, despite an outstanding 2008 season. The Cubs should be able to retain Grabow’s services as the team’s primary left-handed set-up man for 2 years, $5 million.

7. Sign RP David Weathers

Weathers just celebrated his 40th birthday in September, but he’s still a capable middle reliever. He’s held his own in the NL Central, posting five straight seasons of sub-4.00 ERA pitching for mostly the Reds (before a half-season with the Brewers). Weathers still has gas in the tank and provides good bullpen depth with a well-traveled, experienced arm. He’s the relief version of an innings-eater. He can fill in for multi-inning mop-up work or come in for an out or two late in the game. He can be used all over as a reliever, and though he’s struggled with HRs, he still knows how to get outs (as evidenced by his .199 BAA for the Reds this season before getting dealt). The Brewers hold an option for $3.7 million, which they can (and will) buyout for $400K. If I’m in the Cubs, given his success in the NL Central, I’d scoop him up for 1-year, $1.5 million.

8. Sign OF Endy Chavez

Chavez has been treading the line between defensive supersub outfielder and starter for the last couple of seasons. He was one of the best fourth outfielders in the game for the Mets from 2006-08 and was off to a nice start in LF for the Mariners in 2009 before his season was cut short due to a torn ACL. He’s a smart, fundamentally-sound outfielder, who is extremely difficult to strikeout or to catch on the basepaths. He’s a good slap hitter and has added value as a left-handed bat off the bench. Chavez is one of the best defensive left fielders when healthy and he’s also more than capable in center field. He’d be a nice platoon partner for the right-handed Eric Byrnes in CF for the Cubs in 2010. I’d give him a one-year, $2 million deal to start some games in CF and serve as a defensive supersub to below-average fielders, Soriano and Dunn.

9. Re-sign C Henry Blanco

It’s hard to understand why the Cubs let Blanco leave after 2008. He’s the type of guy managers love because, with his age, experience, and knowledge, he’s almost like a player-coach. He’s defensively adept, a good game manager, and provides a solid bat for a back-up catcher. Many said he was instrumental in Geovany Soto’s development in 2008, when Soto went on to win the NL ROY. With Blanco gone in 2009, Soto tanked. It’s hard to attribute Soto’s precipitious drop-off in production solely to the departure of Blanco, but Soto was absolutely awful without getting tips from the veteran last season. Soto hit .218/11/47 in 2009, watching his AVG dip nearly 70 points while his power numbers were cut in half. The Cubs’ back-up catchers didn’t fare well, either. Bringing back Blanco could not only improve the depth behind Soto, but Soto himself. Blanco is the type of player whose value goes well beyond measureable stats. I’d resign him on a one-year, $1.75 million deal.

10. Keep RP Sean Marshall as a long reliever

Marshall has shown to be much more effective as a long reliever than a full-time starter. He can still spot-start if need be, but Marshall has difficulty maintaining consistency when given the ball every fifth day. The Cubs could use a long-man and another lefty out of the bullpen and Marshall is a quality option, who possesses good tools. He was pretty highly-touted as a prospect and though he won’t be the middle-of-the-rotation starter many thought he might develop into, he can carve himself a very nice niche as an effective lefty long-reliever and the type of 12th pitcher teams look for to round out a staff.

Therefore, if I were the Cubs’ GM this offseason, this is how I would rebuild the roster for 2010…

The 2010 Chicago Cubs

Starting Lineup:

1. Ryan Theriot, 2B
2. Orlando Cabrera, SS
3. Derrek Lee, 1B
4. Adam Dunn, RF
5. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
6. Alfonso Soriano, LF
7. Geovany Soto, C
8. Eric Byrnes, CF
9. Pitcher

Bench:

Henry Blanco (C)
Aaron Miles (IF)
Conor Jackson (1B/OF)
Jeff Baker (IF/OF)
Endy Chavez (OF)

Starting Rotation:

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Ryan Dempster
3. Ben Sheets
4. Ted Lilly
5. Randy Wells

Bullpen:

Carlos Marmol (Closer)
Chad Qualls (Set-up man)
Angel Guzman
John Grabow
Mike MacDougal
David Weathers
Sean Marshall

Analysis: The Cubs really need four things this offseason: 1) Another power hitter, 2) A frontline starter, 3) A reconstructed bullpen, and 4) to get rid of Milton Bradley and Kosuke Fukudome. Dunn gives the power hitter, Sheets should give them the starting pitcher they’re missing, the bullpen has been rebuilt, and the distractions have been removed. With improved role players and depth and less distractions, it should also spell bounce-back years from Zambrano, Soto, and Soriano. This roster gives the Cubs a dangerous heart of the lineup, four very good veteran arms and an impressive rookie in the rotation, and a rebuilt bullpen that has all the resources needed to close out games. Lou Piniella is still a very good manager, and with a more talented, clubhouse-oriented roster in 2010, they have the potential to re-take the NL Central next season.

Things are once again looking rosy for the Yankees as they make their push for their 27th World Series Championship, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some concerns looming on the horizon. The Yankees will have a number of issues to address this offseason including how to address 60% of their starting rotation, what paths to take with prized arms Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, and potentially having to fill all three outfield positions for 2010. I wouldn’t expect an encore performance of the Yankees’ free-spending offseason of 2009, but  I do anticipate a series of moves to address the aforementioned issues.

As a result, these are the moves I’d make this offseason if I were Brian Cashman…

The 2010 New York Yankees Fantasy GM

1. Sign SP Erik Bedard

After the Mariners’ success without Bedard this season, it’s highly unlikely they’ll offer him arbitration and pay him upwards of $8 million to come back and pitch for them again next season. Bedard, for all intents and purposes, has become the left-handed Rich Harden. A dominant pitcher when healthy, but rarely ever healthy. He made only 30 starts in his two years as a Mariner and underwent season-ending shoulder surgery this past August. There are some positive signs here, though. He was fairly dominant when he was healthy in 2009, posting a 2.82 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 82 innings pitched. Also, the shoulder surgery was considered relatively “minor,” only repairing a frayed labrum, which means – barring any unforeseen setbacks – he should be ready to go for spring training. The starting pitching free agent pool is rather thin this offseason and especially light on effective left-handed starters. The Yankees may lose Andy Pettitte and though they have Sabathia as their ace, they could use another lefty in the back-end of the rotation. The Yankees took a gamble on signing A.J. Burnett last offseason, who was stigmatized as a fragile pitcher, but it paid off. The Yankees could take a gamble again this offseason on Bedard for a fraction of the price. If I were the Yankees, I’d give Bedard a one-year, $8 million deal with a team-option for a big payday in 2011 ($12-15 million) if he can prove that he’s once again healthy.

2. Re-sign OF Johnny Damon, do not resign DH Hideki Matsui

There were times where the $52 million contract the Yankees gave to Johnny Damon was going to backfire on them, but Damon proved to be worth the money in the end. Damon looked worn down in 2007 and nearing the end of his career, but has since given the Yankees two very productive campaigns in 2008 and 2009. He’s aged well. What he’s lost in speed, he’s made up for in power, base-running savvy (12 SBs in 12 attempts this season), and improved plate discipline. Sure, he may have the worst throwing arm of any starting outfielder in baseball, but he’s flourished in the #2 spot in the lineup and infuses the team with excitement. I’d bring him back as the team’s left fielder in 2010 by giving him a 3-year, $30 million deal, which is a little risky for a 36-year old, but he hasn’t shown signs of slowing down recently and his offensive value over the last two years has been worth the money. Given that you’re bringing back one hitter pushing 40, I’d have to let the other one – Matsui – walk. Matsui is still a reliable power hitter, but he’s aging much quicker than Damon and is limited to strictly to being a DH. He still has some value, but the Yankees can absorb the loss without having to bring back another hitter pushing 40.

3. Trade SP Chien-Ming Wang & RP Damaso Marte to Indians for DH Travis Hafner & RP Kerry Wood

This is basically two teams swapping players who no longer fit their roster. The Yankees get more upside, but have to take on more salary. The Indians get rid of some dead weight on the payroll to further the rebuilding process, but lose their closer. Both teams would benefit, however. The Yankees plan on non-tendering Chien-Ming Wang, which means they’d outright lose him if they don’t find a trading partner in the coming months. Damaso Marte’s career in New York has been a complete bust and he’s been phased out. Hafner has hit a brick wall in his early thirties as many stiff power hitters of his prototype have in the past, but he showed signs of rediscovering his stroke in 2009. If he’s even 75% healthy, the damage this left-handed power-masher could do in Yankee Stadium next season is very tempting. His power has waned, but given his massive size and bulk, he’s still capable of tanking any pitch he can get a hold of and he’s still capable of drawing walks at an above-average rate. Meanwhile, Wood gives the Yankees another power arm in the bullpen and a potential set-up man depending on what the team decides to do with Joba and Hughes. They’d be taking on a good amount of payroll, but Wood has become a very effective reliever who would likely thrive in a mid-relief role and Hafner would give them a younger alternative to Matsui at DH.

4. Trade 1B Juan Miranda and RP Brian Bruney to Rockies for RF Brad Hawpe

With the emergences of Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Seth Smith, Hawpe has become expendable for the Rockies, who are always looking to get younger. Hawpe has been a model of consistency for the last four years for the Rockies, hitting 22 or more HRs driving in 84+ RBIs, drawing 74+ walks, and hitting at least .283 in each season. At age 30, he’s still in his peak years and just set a career-high with 42 doubles in 2009. Hawpe is a stranger to the disabled list and can be relied on as an everyday starter. Additionally, despite playing in Coors, his home and away splits are nearly identical. He’d be a great fit in the Yankees lineup and Yankees stadium and would give them a reasonably priced RF. Acquiring Xavier Nady paid dividends prior to his unfortunate injury making him a non-factor in 2009. Hawpe offers the same type of potential for production with more power and less risk. The Yankees would give up Juan Miranda, who has flashed good offensive upside in AAA (think Kendry Morales-lite) and would be a potential heir to 1B when Todd Helton’s time comes to an end. Miranda’s future prospects are drawing dead in New York, however, with Teixeira firmly entrenched at 1B. Bruney, a serviceable righty, is another player with modest upside, but would have a tough time fitting onto the roster as is. With the depth in the bullpen, he is certainly a tradeable commodity.

5. Sign CF Mike Cameron

I’ve been calling for the Yankees to acquire Mike Cameron for the last three offseasons now, and though he’ll be 36 next season, I still think he’d be a good fit for them. The Yankees nearly acquired him for Melky Cabrera last offseason but weren’t able to hammer out the details with the Brewers and the trade fell through. Now Cameron is a free agent and the Yankees can add him without having to give up any personnel. Despite being 35, Cameron posted the third-best range factor of all centerfielders in 2009 and provided his usual offensive output. He’s not a great hitter, by any means, but he has pop and still has some speed. He’s a poor-man’s Johnny Damon at the plate, but due to his high strikeout rate, will never hit much better than .250. Cameron’s addition, nonetheless, would give them a veteran power hitter at the bottom of the lineup, a tremendous defensive presence in center field, and allow Melky to flourish as a fourth outfielder. Given Cameron’s age, I’d give him a 1-year, $8.5 million deal (which is a modest raise from his 1-year, $7 million deal from last season).

6. Resign SP Andy Pettitte

I know I already gave the Yankees Erik Bedard, but there’s nothing wrong with having three effective left-handed starters in your rotation in the AL East. Pettitte looked like he was on the verge of retirement last offseason, but the Yankees lured him back on a 1-year $5.5 million deal and Pettitte was worth every penny of it (or at least for a team with unlimited payroll like the Yankees, he was). He gave them 32 starts, posting a solid 4.16 ERA, a near 2:1 K:BB rate and being a rock of consistency behind Sabathia and Burnett. The rest of the rotation would’ve been a complete liability without him. Additionally, he’s shown he can still take the ball on the big stage and can still thrive under pressure. His season could’ve been ever better if he didn’t make half his starts in the Yankees’ pinball machine of a stadium, as evidenced by his 3.71 road ERA. I’d bring Pettitte back on another 1-year deal in the neighborhood of $7 million, as he’s likely earned the raise for his 2009 performance. He’s always been good for 30+ starts and even at age 37, can still reliably take the ball every fifth day.

7. Sign SP Jon Garland

It appears as if the Yankees can rely on 30+ from Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte next season, but will have the roll the dice with Bedard. Signing Garland would give them a reliable, quality fifth starter. Garland, all things considered, is a pedestrian arm, but as a fifth starter, he offers pretty good value. Garland’s best asset, and quite possibly the only thing he offers at an above-average rate, is durability. He’s made 32 or more starts in every season since 2002. He keeps hitters fairly off-balance and though he’s very hittable, he knows how to use his defense, and can usually get out of jams. He’s not overpowering, but he’s improved his HRA rate and despite bouncing around in recent years, has still pulled in double-digit wins and maintained his consistency. Given all the starting pitching injuries the Yankees have suffered in recent years, Garland’s durability would go a long way. I’d give him a 2-year, $14 million to secure the fifth spot in the rotation and take some pressure off the young arms and the bullpen.

8. Keep RPs Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in the bullpen

Chamberlain, despite the strong resistance by the Yankees’ brass to use him as a mediocre starter instead of a shutdown set-up man, is a no-brainer. The team gave him the opporuntity to be a full-time starter this season and it didn’t pan out. Not only was he monitored every pitch of the way, babied during every start, and eventually wore down to the point where, down the stretch, he was basically used as a reliever to start games for the first two or three innings. On top of all the maintenance and time invested in the project, the worst part was that he still wasn’t even an effective starter. As a matter of fact, his 4.75 ERA and unsightly 1.54 WHIP were well worse than the league-average numbers for AL starters. His HRA and walk rates soared and he lost his overpowering edge. At no point was he anywhere near dominant. The Yankees learned the hard way this season: Joba belongs in the bullpen. This year, he needs to return to the set-up role and be groomed to replace Mariano Rivera, whose contract is up at the end of next season.

Hughes has a bit more flexibility. What’s keeping him from a spot in the rotation is his need to develop a third pitch, which is something he has been working on and will continue to work on. Hughes has added a cutter to his arsenal, but as seen by his failings as a starter, he still needs to hone it. He’s got an excellent fastball and can change the pace with a solid curve, but if he doesn’t want to be the next Mike Pelfrey and be forced to rely on a fastball, he’ll have to continue to master the cutter. The best way to allow him to do that – besides extensive work in the offseason – is out of the bullpen again in 2010. Once he can establish a more robust repetoire, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be re-inserted into the rotation in 2011. He still has the stuff, makeup, and arm to project as a top-of-the-rotation starter. Unlike Joba, he has the arm durability to handle the workload of a starter. I’d give him one more season to refine his tools in the bullpen – given he’s still so young – and plan on moving him into the rotation in 2011. Also, just think how dominant that bullpen could be next season with Rivera, Chamberlain, Hughes, and Wood, not to mention, David Robertson, who was one of the best strikeout pitchers amongst all relievers this season.

9. Resign IF/OF Jerry Hairston, Jr. & C Jose Molina

Both of these veterans are essential pieces of the Yankees reserve cast. Hairston’s versatility and ability to step into just about any position at any time in the game makes him invaluable as a super-utility player. He’s also been surprisingly productive with the bat and offers great speed on the basepaths. He’d give the team a fifth outfielder, back-up middle infielder, pinch-hitter, and pinch-runner extraordinaire all in one roster spot and for a reasonable price. I’d resign him with a two-year, $4 million contract. I’d also bring back Molina, a fundamentally sound defensive catcher and the perfect complement to Jorge Posada. He’d also likely serve as Burnett’s personal catcher, increasing his value. Francisco Cervelli has some upside, but he can spend another year in AAA and work on his game-calling abilities while the Yankees give Molina another year as Posada’s back-up. I’d resign Molina for one year at $1.5 million.

10. Sign RP B.J. Ryan to a minor-league deal

The Yankees coveted Ryan four years ago as their primary set-up man when he hit free agency, but lost out to the Blue Jays who offered him a whopping contract and the ability to be a full-time closer. Ryan had his ups and downs during his tenure in Toronto. When he was good, he was his an above-average closer; when he was bad, he was usually hurt. Then, he downright imploded last season and became a roster casualty during the Blue Jays’ roster purge. That doesn’t mean he’s finished. If the Blue Jays were still competitive, you can bet they would’ve let him work his problems out in mid-relief. He went to the Cubs and was subsequently cut again, but the Cubs have a history of giving up on pitchers with mechanical issues (see: Rich Hill, Chad Gaudin, etc.). Given Ryan’s accomplishment, he warrants another opportunity and the Yankees can now bring him in practically for free. I’d give him a minor-league deal and let him battle it out with Phil Coke for the lefty-specialist spot in the bullpen.

11. Make OF Melky Cabrera the fourth outfielder; option OF Brett Gardner to AAA

Cabrera is a serviceable starter in centerfield and would probably be held in much higher regard as any everyday player on a small-market franchise. However, while he’s still capable as an everyday player, his skill set would make him a premier fourth outfielder. He can handle all three outfield spot, he’s got great range and a great arm in the field, he can switch-hit, he has some pop, and he’s got speed on the basepaths. He’s the type of guy who does everything well, but not much great. Given the make-up of this roster, he’s the perfect fit for a fourth outfielder. Gardner impressed when he was healthy last year, and has the potential to be a very good fourth outfielder in his own right, but there’s just no room for him right now. Anything he could offer would already be offered by either Cabrera or Hairston, so he’d be best kept in AAA, should an injury occur.

As a result, if I were the Yankees’ GM this offseason, this is the roster I would assemble for 2010:

The 2010 New York Yankees

Starting Lineup:

1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Johnny Damon, LF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Jorge Posada, C
6. Brad Hawpe, RF
7. Robinson Cano, 2B
8. Travis Hafner, DH
9. Mike Cameron, CF

Bench:

Jose Molina (C)
Jerry Hairston, Jr. (IF/OF)
Nick Swisher (1B/OF)
Melky Cabrera (OF)

Starting Rotation:

1. C.C. Sabathia
2. A.J. Burnett
3. Erik Bedard
4. Andy Pettitte
5. Jon Garland

Bullpen:

Mariano Rivera (Closer)
Joba Chamberlain (Set-up man)
Phil Hughes
Kerry Wood
B.J. Ryan
David Robertson
Alfredo Aceves

Analysis: The Yankees really only have two major areas of concern: the outfield and the back-end of the rotation. Adding Hawpe and Cameron and resigning Damon fixes the outfield, while adding Bedard and Garland and resigning Pettitte patches up the rotation. Essentially, the Yankees added the foundation to their team with big contracts last offseason and this offseason, they’re peppering in one-year deals to lock up a strong supporting veteran cast to address their deficiencies. If they can get similar production from Damon, Jeter, and Posada in the lineup and Burnett, Pettitte, and Rivera on the pitching staff, then they’ll be in good shape. Adding more talent that’s still at or near the midpoints of their careers, including Hawpe, Hafner, and Wood, makes things even better. They’ll have arguably the best lineup, starting pitcher, and bullpen in all of baseball, all assembled on the same team, which puts them in good position for a division title repeat in 2010.

This offseason they’ll need to add some pieces for what is likely to be one last postseason run under Jim Leyland. The biggest issue will be finding some protection for Miguel Cabrera in the lineup. Cabrera was, at times, the only productive hitter in the lineup for spans of games. The team emphasized defense, and at the risk of doing so, lost some firepower from their lineup. They’ll need to improve their offensive output at catcher, shortstop, and designated hitter. They also will need to address what to do with the albatross contracts of Carlos Guillen, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, and Dontrelle Willis. Additionally, they’ve found some good young pitchers to anchor the rotation, but the back-end will need some veteran help. They have a lot of good, young arms still on the mend who will likely spend most of 2010 rediscovering their talents. If all goes well, they could have an excess of arms in the bullpen, but they’ll still need to figure out the back-end of the bullpen. Fernando Rodney is a free agent and they will likely need to find a new set-up man with Brandon Lyon also hitting free agency.

If I was Tigers’ GM Dave Dombrowski, here are the moves I would make this offseason…

The 2010 Detroit Tigers Fantasy GM

1) Sign DH Vladimir Guerrero

Guerrero has definitely regressed at the plate. The question is how much of that is due to the toll playing right field has taken on his body. Vlad had been adamant in recent years to still see time in the field and the Angels begrudgingly acquiesced. However, after Vlad’s latest set of injuries this season – a strained left knee and a chest injury – ended his bid to play defense. He got the rest and rehabilitation he desperately needed during the summer last season and came back with a vengeance (not coincedentally, without playing an inning of defense). He still has a great arm in right field, the problem is that his arm is attached to the rest of his body. And that body is no longer capable of handling anything more than being a full-time DH. However, I think if he’s a full-time DH next season, he is still capable of emulating his 2008 campaign (.303/27/91) if not more – which is far better than the Tigers got from the DH spot last season. It’s a risky proposition, but with so much dead weight coming off the books next season for the Tigers, I’d give him a 2-year, $28 million deal to serve as the full-time DH and give Miguel Cabrera the protection he so desperately needs.

2) Sign SS Miguel Tejada

The signing of Adam Everett last season to boost the infield defense was a good move in theory, but his impotent bat essentially turned the Tigers’ lineup into an 8-man lineup when he was inserted in as a starter. Tejada is a very inconsistent defender at shortstop, coming off an egregious year defensively. He’s a bit sloppy and slow as a fielder, but he’s maintained a respectable range factor. He’s prone to errors, but his defense could look much better next to a defensive whiz like Brandon Inge at 3B. You have to take the good with the bad here – with inconsistent defense comes a great bat. Tejada’s power has clearly declined (you can speculate as to why), but for whatever the reason, he’s recognized this and has compensated for it by becoming a more cerebral contact hitter. He’s seeing the ball tremendously well in recent seasons, hits for average, and has cut down on his strikeout totals. He’s capable of hitting in the two-spot, but with his speed a liability, he’s best served in the #5 or #6 spot, where he can continue to lace doubles (46 in 2009) in a spacious Comerica outfield after the big bats get on base. I’d give Tejada a 3-year, $35 million deal, with the possibility of him moving to 3B after Inge becomes a free agent next season.

3) Resign 2B Placido Polanco

The Tigers have a prized-prospect in 24-year old Scott Sizemore, who hit well over .300 with 16 HRs and 21 SB between AA and AAA in 2009 and is currently hitting well in the AFL. He’s probably ready for an everyday job at 2B from an offensive prospective. His defense isn’t a liability, but given the make-up of this team, the Tigers are probably best suited with one more season of Placido Polanco’s stellar, reliable defense at second base for a team in win-now mode. Polanco had a typical season: great defense (possibly his best defensive season ever, committing only 2 errors in the field), and despite not hitting .300 (skewed by a cold April/May), he kept his strikeouts down, put the ball in play, added a few homers and steals, and was a solid doubles and singles hitter. I’d re-up Polanco for a one-year deal that tops the money Orlando Hudson got or will get and give him roughly $6 million (a significant raise).

4) Sign C Jason Varitek

The Red Sox have a $5 million club option and Varitek holds a $3 million player option. It doesn’t make much sense for the Red Sox to pay Varitek $5 million when they’ll have Victor Martinez firmly entrenched as their catcher, and it doesn’t make much sense for Varitek to take $3 million to be a back-up when he still wants to be a starter. As such, I see Varitek hitting the free agency market this offseason. He’d be a great fit for a gritty Detroit team, as a Michigan native, where he could start (but split time) with Gerald Laird. Laird is a good game manager and solid defensively, but his bat was useless in 2009. Varitek isn’t the hitter he once was (.209 AVG in 2009, .220 AVG in 2008), but he’s still got some pop in his bat and can still surprise a pitcher in a clutch at-bat. He’s still a great game manager, even if his defense has deteriorated. Regardless, he’s an upgrade to Laird, and a timeshare between him and Laird would keep both fresh and improve the overall production from the catcher spot. I’d give Varitek a one-year, $5 million deal.

5) Trade 1B/OF Carlos Guillen, cash to Phillies for SP Jamie Moyer

Guillen has become one of the most fragile position players in baseball and it has taken a toll on his offensive potential. He has still shown flashes of brilliance with the bat, but what was expected to be a bounce-back season for Guillen in 2009 at the plate fell flat after the injuries accumulated. He still has some pop and could be a very valuable switch-hitter off the bench, but it doesn’t appear as if his body can take the rigors of playing everyday. Unfortunately, the Tigers owe him $26 million over the next two seasons. If they can’t find a trading partner, they could pull another Sheffield and just cut him loose in the offseason. However, Guillen is much younger than Sheffield, can switch-hit, and could feasibly still hit for some average and power in the right situation. Philadelphia could be the right situation for him where he would fill in at 1B, 3B, and the outfield on an as-needed basis in a hitter’s park. The Phillies already have too many lefties in the rotation and bullpen and could afford to move the 46-year old Jamie Moyer. The Tigers could use a back-end veteran lefty starter, and Moyer is still a serviceable option (4.94 ERA in 2009). The swap could happen, but the Tigers would likely have to eat about $8 million of Guillen’s remaining $26 million and take on the full amount of Moyer’s $6.5 million contract in 2009. The move would clear a spot on the bench for the Tigers for a more versatile player, save some money, and fill a back-end rotational void while the Phillies would get the power-hitting veteran utility hitter they’ve been looking for while freeing up a bullpen spot for one of their younger arms.

6) Sign SP Doug Davis

With the young, potential-laden arms of Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, and Rick Porcello, and Jamie Moyer filling out the last spot as a crafty lefty, Davis is the perfect fit as a middle-of-the-rotation transitional lefty veteran. Davis is an unspectacular pitcher, but he’s become one of the most reliable. He’s a solid innings-eater who may be hittable, but knows how to work his way out of jams and keep the ball in the park. He’s made at least 33 starts in five of the last six seasons and has maintained a sub-4.50 ERA in each of the last three years. He’s a good clubhouse guy and he’ll take the stress off the younger pitchers and bullpens with a durable arm. I’d give him 2 years, $14 million to be the #3 starter.

7) Resign RP Fernando Rodney & Sign RP LaTroy Hawkins

I’m torn as to whether or not Rodney should be a full-time closer in this league. He’s not as good as his save numbers this season indicate – 37 saves in 38 chances – which his 4.40 ERA can attest to. He has the stuff to close, but his control is shaky, his mentality is questionable, and he’s subject to the occasional implosion. With the game on the line and the pressure on, you can only have so much confidence in Rodney, as we saw in the one-game playoff against the Twins. He’s probably best suited as a set-up man, but the closer pool is fairly shallow in 2009. All told, he is capable of being a middle-of-the-pack ninth-inning man, but there isn’t much more upside here at age 32. Given his history with the organization and an assurance to be the go-to guy for saves, you can probably get him back on a hometown discount. I’d give him 3 years, $10 million. However, in addition, I’d add LaTroy Hawkins, not only as the primary set-up man, but a situational closer, when the ninth inning features a lefty-heavy opposing lineup, or should Rodney struggle. Essentially, I’d make Rodney 1a and Hawkins 1b in save opportunities, and I’d give Hawkins 2 years, $8 million to fill the set-up role.

8) Sign OF Rick Ankiel; platoon him in LF with Ryan Raburn

Ankiel struggled – not surprisingly – to hit for contact in 2009 and his days in St. Louis are likely over. Ankiel is still a solid, versatile outfield defender with a plus arm, who has untapped power, and can mash off lefties. He’s never going to be a great contact hitter, but in a platoon where he can primarily face lefties, he should be able to post an above-average slugging percentage. Against righties last year, he hit .234/0/8 in 94 at-bats. Clearly, he needs to be platooned and Raburn, a righty, is the perfect complement in left field. Raburn probably has the bat to start everyday, as evidenced by his .291 AVG last season, but he’s the type of guy who is much more valuable in a super-utility role than playing one position everyday. Raburn is an adequate or better defender at every position but catcher, can give you speed or power off the bench, and is a modest pinch-hitter. He’s the type of all-around guy who makes for an extremely valuable role player. Platooning him in left field will get him consistent at-bats and allow him to fill the utility role when he’s not in the lineup. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s more effective against right-handed pitching, as expected.

9) Have an open competition for the long relief/spot starter spot

The Tigers have two high-priced former top starters that are rehabbing from injuries in Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis, whose contracts make them immovable. It doesn’t appear as if either currently has the arm to move back into the rotation. All you can do is hope for the best and allow them to compete for a mop-up job and go from there. It’s possible Bonderman could thrive if his workload is drastically reduced (after being overworked for years and suffering an unfortunate thoraic issue), but his long-term durability and health is a serious concern. Willis has become a head-case who has apparently lost any control he had over his pitches; he could be toyed with in the minors as a hitter. Either way, neither should be entrusted with much at this point. Additionally, the Tigers still have perennial long-man Zach Miner, who was typically mediocre in the role. They also have Armando Galarraga, who thrived as a rookie in 2008, but came back to earth in 2009, struggling mightily with his consistency. Hitters caught up with him last season, but he still is young enough to rediscover his talent. He’s probably not as good as his 2008 numbers or as bad as his 2009 numbers – he’s somewhere in between – but he’s not ready to return to the rotation immediately in 2010, so he’ll either work out the kinks in the minors or fill in as a long reliever. They also have soft throwing lefty Nate Robertson under an immovable contract, who could either compete for this spot or be moved into a more lefty-specialist, short-relief role.

10) Sign RP Eddy Guardado

Guardado is a crafty, experienced arm who would complement Bobby Seay with another lefty arm in the bullpen and a potential save vulture if all else fails. I’d give him a 1-year deal worth $500K.

11) Keep an eye on next offseason

The Tiger fanbase has grown impatient with the team and this late season meltdown should fuel their ire. The Tigers can’t afford to be complacement, but they also can’t focus too much on the short-term. The Tigers have the foundation to be competitive again in 2010, they just need some veteran additions to re-establish themselves as the AL Central favorites. Next offseason, Bonderman, Willis, and Robertson’s atrocious salaries will come off the books. The three alone will clear $34.5 million off the books. Additionally, if they were to trade for Moyer, his $6.5 million would come off the books, along with the one year deals of Polanco and Varitek (an additional $11 million). Magglio Ordonez has another $15 million vesting option for 2011 (with no buy-out) that the Tigers will avoid like the plague from being guaranteed by preventing him from reaching 135 starts or 540 plate appearances. Inge’s contract, which will pay him $6.6 million in 2010, will also come to an end at the end of next season. All told, the Tigers could free themselves of upwards of $75 million in payroll next offseason. Knowing this, the Tigers can spend a bit more than they normally would this season and spend next offseason negotiating long-term deals with Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson before they’re no longer arbitration-eligible.

As a result, this is the roster I’d field for 2010 if I was the Tigers’ GM…

The 2010 Detroit Tigers

Starting Lineup:

1. Curtis Granderson, CF
2. Placido Polanco, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Vladimir Guerrero, DH
5. Miguel Tejada, SS
6. Magglio Ordonez, RF
7. Brandon Inge, 3B
8. Jason Varitek, C
9. Rick Ankiel, LF*

Bench:

Gerald Laird (C)
Ramon Santiago (IF)
Marcus Thames (1B/OF)
Ryan Raburn (IF/OF)*

*platoon in LF

Starting Rotation:

1. Justin Verlander
2. Edwin Jackson
3. Doug Davis
4. Rick Porcello
5. Jamie Moyer

Bullpen:

Fernando Rodney (closer)
LaTroy Hawkins (set-up man)
Bobby Seay
Ryan Perry
Eddy Guardado
Joel Zumaya
Zach Miner

In one a few series of articles I plan on running with this baseball offseason, “Fantasy GM” is the one I may enjoy the most. Its direct value to fantasy baseball is minimal, but this is just one of the many ways I plan to expand the horizons of this blog to go beyond fantasy baseball and into other areas of the game that allow for interactivity. My intentions are to play “fantasy GM” for all 30 teams this offseason, in which I will assume the general manager position of each franchise and, acting in the what I consider the best interest of the team, make the necessary transactions to improve the team. Of course, this also is done with a strong sense of reality. It’s in the best interest of the Royals to give Matt Holliday a 7-year, $100 million contract, but we all know they couldn’t possibly afford to do so nor would they. It’s a combination of what I think they should do with what I think they’ll actually do.

I will also attempt to include any moves that a team has already made this offseason (there haven’t been many, so this won’t be a major issue, but it’s worth noting). Also, I am starting with the teams I think will make the biggest impact and working my way down. All of the moves made by one team will overlap with another team. For instance if I have the Red Sox pick up Victor Martinez’s 2010 option, then I will not have another team sign him when I’m playing a different fantasy GM. Basically, it’s a combination of reality and fantasy. It’s as if I could control the moves for every franchise this offseason. Like I said, there isn’t much fantasy impact, but I think it’s interactive and entertaining and makes for some good arguments and discussions.

That about sums it up. So, without further adieu, let’s start with the team who should and needs to make the biggest offseason splash this winter; the same team who kicked things off last season…

The 2010 New York Mets Fantasy GM

The horrific 2009 season that was for the New York Mets came about due to a number of factors, some of which went beyond the control of management. Countless injuries devastated the lineup and the rotation and the new stadium seemed to create problems in both the field and at the plate for a number of position players. The Mets appeared to do some things right last offseason, like doling the money to land Francisco Rodriguez as their closer, pulling off what many thought to be a savvy trade to acquire J.J. Putz as their set-up man, re-signing inconsistently brilliant Oliver Perez, picking up Carlos Delgado’s option, and giving manager Jerry Manuel an extension. Unfortunately, almost every move the Mets last offseason backfired on them. The combination of ill-fated contracts, injuries, slopiness, and downright bad luck cursed the Mets in 2009 and thus, this will be another huge offseason for them. What the Mets really need to do is clean house and rebuild with a bottom-up approach. However, we all know there are no rebuilding seasons in New York. In the New York City market, every season is a win-now season and 2010 is no exception for the Mets. If Omar Minaya wants to keep his job beyond next season, he’ll need to shake things up and turn this franchise back into a contender over the next few months, and if I was Minaya this is how I’d do it…

1) Fire Jerry Manuel; sign Rudy Jaramillo as manager

Manuel earned the job with a strong finish in 2008 and, in my opinion, he lost it with a sloppy 2009 season in which he often looked bewildered and lost as a manager. The Mets were arguably the sloppiest team in baseball last season and you can put the blame on some of the players, but ultimately it falls on the manager. The team was clearly deficient in fundamentals, as was evident by atrocious base running, terrible defense, and egregious mental errors on a nightly basis. You can chalk it up to injuries or adjusting to the new stadium, but Manuel has to take some of the blame. This team was downright embarrassing to watch at times and that’s just unacceptable when you’re handed a $150 million payroll. He mismanaged the bullpen and the bench and clashed with his own players on more than one occasion. The team lacked chemistry and Manuel did a poor job of damage control in the media. Whatever magic he had in 2008 with the team rapidly dissipated in 2009. If this team is going to re-emerge as a contender, a major shake up is needed in the clubhouse and it starts by bringing in a new manager to lead the team.

I don’t think there’s a better fit out there for the Mets than the recently unemployed Rudy Jaramillo, who spent more than a decade developing some of the best hitters in baseball as the Texas Rangers hitting coach. Jaramillo was the runner-up to Willie Randolph in 2005 and the organization has been smitten with him in the past. His resume as a hitting coach is in impeccable. The players he’s helped hone and develop reads like an all-star lineup, including names such as Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Hank Blalock, Mark Teixeira, Juan Gonzalez, and Jeff Bagwell. After the Mets put out such a punchless lineup night after night this season, Jaramillo is the type of presence they need to revive the offense. The Rangers lineup regressed a bit last season and Jaramillo doesn’t have much of a small-ball mentality, but if they add a few of the big-name power hitters they are reportedly pursuing, he could turn things around quickly. His experience and demeanor favorably projects with the current Mets clubhouse and he’s a venerable name in baseball circles. He doesn’t have any managerial experience, but he’s certainly earned a shot to take the reigns of a major-league club. He could bring the best out of the lineup, including right-fielder Jeff Franceour, with whom he was worked privately in the past. There are a number of connections he has to team already and his hiring would make for a smooth transition in the Mets’ quest to return to respectability.

2) Trade 3B David Wright & 2B Luis Castillo to Brewers for 1B Prince Fielder

In addition to shaking things up in the clubhouse, the Mets must make a splash on the field to show they’re taking this franchise in a new direction. This trade will make a major impact on the lineup and would give the Mets the bona fide cleanup hitter they have lacked. Let me make this explicitly clear, however: David Wright is not the problem. That said, Wright seems to have struggled when the pressure is on him and though he’s handled the media well, it seems as if he’s the type of player who would thrive better in a more low-key environment (such as Milwaukee). Wright’s glove and versatility is almost irreplaceable, but his inability to hit in clutch situations and his power struggles in the new stadium raise some serious concerns. In a blatantly-favorable pitcher’s park, such as Citi Field (even more than Shea was), Wright is not going to crank out 30 homers. He doesn’t have that type of power. His 5 HRs in 277 home at-bats attest to this. The Mets would capitalize much more on Fielder’s potential than Wright’s, given the circumstances.

Fielder and the Brewers have already gone back-and-forth with contract disputes and though he’s locked up for $10.5 million for 2010, he’ll hit free agency after next season and the Brewers realize they probably have little-to-no chance of retaining his skills beyond that. It makes sense to move him now. His trade value is through the roof. He’s coming off a .299/46/141 2009 campaign at age 25 and, though whoever acquires him will obviously need to work out a long-term deal, right now there’s minimal commitment. He’s shown himself to be a true workhorse who rarely misses a game and may be one of the strongest hitters in the game. Not even the cavernous Citi Field will be able to keep Fielder’s bat in check.

Obviously, right now, Fielder’s value – given last season and his contract – is superior to Wright’s. As a result, I’ve included Luis Castillo in the deal, who was arguably the team’s MVP last season. Castillo’s contract isn’t looking so bad anymore, but it would allow the Mets to clear up a few million to use towards free agency. Meanwhile, the Brewers would get another player to reunite with bench coach Willie Randolph and get themselves a viable second baseman and top-of-the-lineup hitter. Rickie Weeks sorely needs a move to the outfield and this would facilitate the process. For the Mets, Castillo is replaceable. He had a nice season in 2009, but it’s hard to anticipate as strong of a follow-up in 2010.

3) Sign LF Jason Bay

This signing would complete the transformation from a punchless, scrappy lineup to one that pitchers will actually fear. Like Fielder, Bay is a big, strong, powerful bat coming off an impressive 2009 campaign. He’s a clubhouse leader and a reliable talent. His contact hitting has regressed slightly in recent years, but he’s still a respectable .280 lifetime hitter and just posted career highs in home runs and RBIs. At age 31, he’s still in the midst of his prime and would be the perfect right-handed bat to protect Fielder in this lineup. The Mets oversaw Bay’s development in their minor league system almost a decade ago and know what he can bring to the lineup. His defense is adequate at best, but with a healthy Carlos Beltran roaming in centerfield in 2010, it’s a manageable defect. He isn’t the contact hitter David Wright is, but he can give you a production line similar to that of Wright before the move to Citi Field. He’s a versatile, savvy hitter with a big bat and he does well with the pressure on. His addition would fill a major void in both LF and the heart of the lineup. If I were the Mets, I’d give him a 5-year, $80 million deal.

3) Trade OF Fernando Martinez & SP John Maine to Indians for 3B Jhonny Peralta, SP Jake Westbrook, SP Fausto Carmona, and RP Chris Perez

Both the Mets and the Indians need to rebuild after extremely disappointing 2009 campaigns. The Indians can afford to rebuild, the Mets can afford to take on veteran contracts and go back into win-now mode in 2010. The two make for great trading partners. The Mets have been extremely resistant to dealing Fernando Martinez, an uberstar in a disappointing farm system, but if they want to add some veteran pieces to return to contenders in 2010, they’ll need to part with the few trading pieces they have in the minors. Martinez, like most Mets prospects (cough, Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, cough) is valued much higher by the Mets than other organizations. Martinez wasn’t ready for his cup of coffee in the majors this season, but I still don’t see him projecting as a superstar. He hasn’t blown pitchers away with his talent and the Mets should maximize their ability to trade him while he’s still viewed based on  potential and not actual results. The Indians have coveted him for awhile and they have the pieces to acquire him. Similarly to Wright, John Maine has seemingly fallen out of favor in New York and a change of scenery to a mid-market team with less pressure could suit him well.

Jhonny Peralta is a solid 3B with some pop and someone who has been outspoken about the Indians’ inability to keep superstars. His rift with the organization will likely spell the end of his career with the Indians. He’s a good bottom-of-the-lineup power hitter to man the hot corner and should mesh well with the Mets clubhouse. Fausto Carmona was a dominant pitcher two seasons ago but lost control of his command and has since imploded. He was sent down to the minors to work out the kinks in his delivery last season and finished well with a couple of strong starts, but a change of scenery appears to be necessary. He’s the type of guy the Mets could uncover as a gem with the right amount of work, and given the Mets history with injured pitchers, he’d provide great depth for the rotation or as a long-reliever out of the bullpen. Meanwhile, Chris Perez is another intriguing young arm, who would fit well in a middle relief role with the potential to one day be a powerful set-up man. Westbrook is the wildcard. He missed all of last season, but should be healthy for spring training next year. He’s in a contract year and if he wants more than a minor-league deal next offseason, he needs to show he can return to his #3 starter/workhorse status. If he’s healthy, he could be a great veteran addition to the back-end of the rotation.

4) Sign SP Rich Harden

Yes, I know. The Mets have enough problems with pitching injuries without having to sign arguably the most fragile starter in baseball. However, let’s be honest. The starting pitching market this offseason is relatively uninspiring. If the Mets don’t want to dole out millions upon millions on a potential fluke like Joel Pineiro, they’ll have to take some risks. The Mets don’t have much payroll coming off the books in 2010 and with them already paying big bucks to Bay and negotiating a long-term deal with Fielder, they’ll have to find cheap alternatives in the rotation. No one in their right mind (relax, Bill Bavasi was fired) would give Harden a multi-year deal. As a result, the highest bidder on a one-year deal will likely win the rights to him. Harden’s injury history is an automatic red flag, but his 51 starts over the last two seasons is very encouraging. He’ll never be a 200 IP pitcher, but he’s shown himself to be fairly reliable for 6 innings every five days for the last two years. The brightside is he has ace potential and may be an even better strikeout pitcher than Johan Santana. The downside is that he was both healthy and mediocre last season. Usually, he’s dominant during his flashes of good health, but last year his 4.09 ERA and 23 HRA in 141 innings was surprisingly disappointing. Nevertheless, the upside is there. A lot went wrong with the Cubs in 2009 and like the Mets other suggested acquisitions, he’s another guy who looks to be in need of a change of scenery. I’d give him one-year, $8 million to be the #2 starter. The Mets sorely need another dominant pitcher to bridge the gap between Santana and the back-end of the rotation, and if healthy, which he has shown he can be for 25 or so starts, Harden would be an ideal candidate.

5) Trade minor-league RPs Eddie Kunz & Arturo Lopez and OF Jeremy Reed to Reds for SP Bronso Arroyo

The Reds owe Arroyo $11 million for the upcoming season and hold a $11 million option for the 2011 season. His demographic really doesn’t fit this young team and the Reds could far better spend $11 million than on a 32-year old #3 starting pitcher. The Reds still appear to be a year or two from being legitimate contenders and this is their best chance to capitalize on maximizing Arroyo’s value after a 15-win, 3.84 ERA campaign. Arroyo is not that good of a pitcher, but he’s durable, reliable, and a pitcher who is usually done in by the long ball, he’d be a solid fit for the Mets in pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Arroyo is what he is and give or take a few ugly performances, you know what you’re getting with him. He’s an ideal #3 starter for a contender and would make the transition from the frontline starters to the back-end starters very smooth while taking some pressure off the bullpen. Kunz was a pretty highly regarded piece for the Mets in 2008, but struggled at AAA last season. He’s still viewed, however, as a potential closer in the mold of a J.J. Putz and the Reds could use a good, young arm to shore up their bullpen.

6) Trade 1B/OF Daniel Murphy to A’s for Michael Wuertz

The Mets had high hopes for Murphy, but he failed to live up to them both in the field and at the plate. He salvaged his season by flashing a pretty good glove at 1B after a disastrous showing in LF and hitting noticeably better in the second half, but where he fits in the Mets long-term plans is murky. He doesn’t have the bat to play everyday for the Mets at 1B and doesn’t really have the versatility to be useful as a utility player. To me, he evokes images of Ross Gload, albeit a superior version. However, I don’t think he’s going to be the player many thought he would be going into this season. He’d make for a great fit in Oakland, where he could potentially start at 1B and where his walk-to-strikeout ratio is a perfect match for Billy Beane’s moneyball. Meanwhile, Wuertz would give the Mets a reliable set-up man. The A’s have plenty of good, young depth in the bullpen making Wuertz expendable after a career year. Wuertz is not a one-trick pony. He’s always been an above-average arm, but was under-utilized by the Cubs. The A’s gave him much more responsibility and consistent innings and he finally got his chance to impress. At age 30, he had a breakout year with 102 Ks and a 2.63 ERA in 74 appearances. He relies on his slider, which is one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball, but mixes in fastballs and off-speed junk. He could one day find himself closing, but for now he’d give the Mets the dominant set-up man they thought they had in J.J. Putz.

7) Decline option on RP J.J. Putz; sign RP Kiko Calero

There’s absolutely no chance the Mets will pick up Putz’s $8.6 million option for 2010 and instead will buy him out for $1 million, thus likely spelling the end of Putz’s disappointing tenure with the franchise. If healthy, he’ll probably get a shot to re-establish himself as a closer for a mid-market team, but there’s no point in the Mets keeping him around. Signing Calero would give them another serviceable late-inning option. Like Wuertz, he was underappreciated early in his career, but has really hit a stride in his thirties. Now 34, Calero has low mileage on his arm but has a solid resume, which includes a 3.24 lifetime ERA and 324 strikeouts in 302 career IP. He had a career year last season with a 1.95 ERA and .180 BAA, but the stingy Marlins are unlikely to resign him, making him a great fit for the Mets.

8) Sign 2B Orlando Hudson

A lot of people wanted this signing to happen a year ago, and though it’s hard to argue with the price tag (the Dodgers gave him a one-year, $3.38 million deal), it turned out to be for the best that the Mets didn’t sign him then. They got a great year out of Luis Castillo this season and while Hudson put up a typical Hudson year with a .283/9/62/8 line and superior defense, he’s lost his starting job in the playoffs to Ronnie Belliard. As a result, it’s foreseeable that he’ll be looking for a new team this offseason. A player known for his fundamentals, strong defensive skills, and clubhouse leadership, he’d give the Mets the type of player (and presence) they’ve sorely lacked. He’d be a great mentor for young hitters like Fielder and Reyes and would give the Mets an infield leader. The Mets should be able to get him at around the same price the Dodgers did last season. I’d offer up a 1-year, $4 million deal.

9) Trade SP Oliver Perez, low-level minor league hitter, & cash to Royals for C Miguel Olivo

The Royals have a mutual option with Olivo for $3.25 million for 2010. They’ll likely pick it up. However, they still have John Buck and oversaw the development of Brayan Pena behind the plate, which makes Olivo fairly expendable. When you’re on a budget as tight as the Royals, you have to strongly consider paying Olivo $3.25 million to do about the same thing Pena can do for a fraction of the price. Of course, keeping this in mind, if the Mets are to swap Oliver Perez from him, they’ll have to eat almost all of Perez’s contract. The Mets owe Perez $12 million for each of the next two seasons. They’ll have to take on at least $8 million for the next two seasons to make the deal work. Perez was absymal last season, but as a lefty who can strikeout a batter per inning and can be brilliant at times, he’ll always have suitors, and the Royals have sorely lacked a lefty in the rotation. He’s worth the risk at the right cost. Olivo is an all-around average catcher. His best asset is his power. He’s adequate, not great behind the plate, and wouldn’t draw a walk on four straight wild pitches (40 total walks over last 3 seasons), but he’s in his prime at 31 and has shown the ability to be a reliable starter. There’s not much else out there. Free agents include Ivan Rodriguez, Ramon Hernandez, and Jason Kendall. They had to go through Schneider breaking down last season, they won’t want to do it again with one of those options. Olivo, at the very least, is an upgrade at the position.

10) Re-sign INF Alex Cora & IF/OF Fernando Tatis

Two of the few bright spots of the 2009 season for the Mets were these two veteran utility players. Tatis followed up a shocking comeback season in 2008 with another impressive campaign in 2009. He’s probably going to continue to regress, but he’s still a solid right-handed bat off the bench who can still drive the ball and is a good situational pinch hitter. He’s also shown to be defensively adept at 1B, 3B, RF, and LF. He’s earned another year with the team. Cora doesn’t do anything great, but he’s a smart, solid bench player who gives them experience and versatility up the middle. His defense is usually spot-on, though he did struggle a bit in the field last season. However, he’s got a good eye at the plate and is an ideal middle infielder back-up. I’d resign him for one-year, $1 million. Bringing both Tatis and Cora would solidify the bench.

11) Sign 1B/3B Chad Tracy

The Diamondbacks will decline their option on the fragile Tracy this offseason and he’d give the Mets a cheap, left-handed power bat off the bench. He’s got a bad back, but he’s still got his power and has a solid all-around skill set at the plate. He’s a poor-man’s Josh Willingham essentially, who showed that he could thrive in a similar role to what the Mets would employ Tracy in. Tracy doesn’t offer much in terms of fielding, but would be good for left-handed matchups in late innings. The Mets should be able to bring him in for 1-year, $750,000.

12) Do not resign 1B Carlos Delgado; hope for the best with health of SS Jose Reyes and CF Carlos Beltran

The Mets had to pick up Delgado’s option last offseason, simply based on economics. Everyone knew it would be a risky proposition and the risk ended up not paying off. Delgado’s presence in the clubhouse has been controversial and outside of an anomaly of a half-season in 2008, his bat has not lived up to his salary. Delgado, while still a capable hitter when healthy (he needs to go to the AL where he can DH at least part-time), personifies the disappointment and failure of the Mets over the last three seasons better than anyone. His departure further symbolizes the change in direction of the franchise. Many have called for the trades of Reyes and Beltran, and it’s easy to understand why, given their salaries and injuries last season, but these two are cornerstone players, and trading them for inferior talent to free salary won’t solve the problem. Both will have plenty of time to rehab and return to prominence in 2010.

As a result, if I were in Omar Minaya’s shoes this offseason, this is the roster I would assemble for 2010:

The New York Mets 2010 Roster

Lineup:
1. Jose Reyes, SS
2. Orlando Hudson, 2B
3. Carlos Beltran, CF
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Jason Bay, LF
6. Jeff Francoeur, RF
7. Jhonny Peralta, 3B
8. Miguel Olivo, C
9. Pitcher

Bench:
Omir Santos (C)
Alex Cora (2B/SS)
Chad Tracy (1B/3B)
Fernando Tatis (1B/3B/OF)
Angel Pagan (OF)

Starting Rotation:
1. Johan Santana
2. Rich Harden
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Mike Pelfrey
5. Jake Westbrook

Bullpen:
Francisco Rodriguez (Closer)
Michael Wuertz (Set-up man)
Kiko Calero
Pedro Feliciano
Sean Green
Chris Perez
Fausto Carmona

Analysis: The Mets once again need a major overhaul and these moves would undoubtedly provide that. The biggest issues are addressed, including increasing the potency of the heart of the lineup. A healthy Beltran, along with Fielder and Bay, would drastically improve the 3-4-5 hole in the lineup. The additions of Hudson and Olivo would also strengthen the periphery of the lineup. As a result, the Mets would be looking at a much stronger lineup than the one they relied on in 2009 and one that would no longer be a liability. The additions of Harden and Arroyo would also give the Mets a much needed bridge from Santana to the back of the rotation, rather than masquerading the likes of Mike Pelfrey and John Maine as #2 starters, while allowing the Mets to continue to develop Johnathan Niese and Bobby Parnell as starters in AAA. Finally, the bullpen, which made strides in 2009, should continue to do so in 2010 by acquiring two solid veteran arms in Wuertz and Calero. Overall, the Mets would get their much needed facelift, with a new manager, an improved lineup, and a re-strengthening of their pitching staff. With better luck, less injuries, superior talent, and a team much better suited for their new stadium in 2010, they would be ready to return to viable contender status.

They’ve already advanced to this year’s NLCS, but despite the marked improvement, they will have more questions to answer this offseason than last. OF Pat Burrell and SP Jamie Moyer are free agents, 1B Ryan Howard is again arbitration-eligible and the franchise will need to negotiate a long-term contract with him this offseason, and they need to figure what to do with SP Adam Eaton’s albatross of a contract, upgrades needed at 3B and C, and arbitration-eligible players like Howard, Hamels, Durbin, Victorino, and Werth. They only have Burrell to resign but will be doling out a lot of money to their younger players to keep their core intact.

If I’m the Phillies’ GM this offseason, these are the moves I would make…

The 2009 Philadelphia Phillies Fantasy GM

1) Negotiate a long-term deal with 1B Ryan Howard

The Phillies squabbled with Howard in arbitration last offseason before settling on a one-year, $10 million deal. After Jimmy Rollins up-and-down year and Chase Utley’s second-half cool down following his red-hot start, it’s become apparent that Howard is the centerpiece of this offense. Howard has unmitigated and unparallel power and could be well on his way to his 2nd NL MVP Award in the last three years. He’s homering at an extraordinary rate and should annually lead the league in that category, he’s a great hitter with runners in scoring position, can carry an offense, and even had a pretty solid year in the field. He’s a clean-cut guy and is the type of player you build a franchise around and locking him up needs to be the Phillies priority. That said, he’s going to be 29 years old next month and he has old-player skills, which means he could hit a Hafner-esque wall down the road, and who knows how long his defense will hold up. He’s already a perennial leader in strikeouts and his average has dropped significantly from .313 in 2006, .268 in 2007, and .251 this season. I’d want to lock him up, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable giving him more than 5 or 6 years of guaranteed money. Of course, this is probably his one chance at landing a prime contract at 29 already, so if you’re only giving him five years, it’s going to have to be a very enticing offer. I’d start by offering 5-years, $100 million. $20 million per season is a lot, but it’s reasonable when you’re dealing with a lefty power bat who has been a perennial MVP candidate since becoming the full-time starter. If he wants more, I’d try extending it a 6-year deal, but would be very weary about going longer than that.
2) Resign LF Pat Burrell

The Phillies will get $20 million off the book from this season when you account for Howard’s $10 million last year and the $10 million they owed Jim Thome and Wes Helms, so Howard’s new contract puts them back at square one. They’re already giving Brad Lidge a $3 million raise this season, will have to give Jamie Moyer a pay increase, and will see their team salary bloated by the countless arbitration cases they face. If they can still afford Burrell, which is feasible, since they appear on the precipice of becoming a big-market team, I’d resign him. He’s replaceable, but with Jayson Werth still developing at the plate, he’s the team’s lone power-hitting righty. He gives Howard protection, which is key, and he has 30-40 HR power and plays a modest LF. He’s become entrenched in the franchise and losing him could hurt without any internal options ready to fill his shoes. Keeping Burrell around preserves a lethal 1-5 top of the order. He got 6 years, $50 million last time he was a free agent. The market has changed since then, but Burrell is six years older at age 32 and isn’t coming off the .282-37-116 season he had in 2002. I’d offer him the same contract to stay put for another six years on a competitive franchise and hope for a hometown discount, which I think he’d accept.

3) Resign SP Jamie Moyer

After Hamels, Moyer was the Phillies’ most reliable and effective starter over the course of the season. He’ll be 46 next season, but with his offspeed junk and pinpoint location, he has thrived without much velocity and really exuded a great presence on the mound this season. He won 16 games with a 3.71 ERA and struck out 123 batters with a mix of baffling offspeed stuff and breaking balls. By the numbers, it was the third best season of his 23 year career and it would incredibly wishful thinking to expect a duplicate performance. Nevertheless, he can still be a savvy back-end starter and with a passive approach, can still be counted on for 180-200 innings. He’s earned a raise and even if you’ll slightly overpay for a statistical anomaly this season, it’ll be worth having his presence to fill out the rotation again next season, even if he only gives you league-average production. I’d give him a one-year, $5.5 million deal.

4) Decline options on OF So Taguchi, RP Tom Gordon

Gordon will be 41 next season and Taguchi will be 39. Both are savvy veterans, but both are past their prime, and while they were either hurt or struggling this season, they were passed up by better options. While Gordon was on the DL, the bullpen still excelled with Romero, Condrey, and Madson leading to Lidge, making him expendable. Also, Taguchi isn’t needed with Jenkins and Bruntlett both capable of backing up in the outfield. The Phillies would save a combined $5.6 million by buying out both their options this offseason and letting them become free agents, which is what I would do to free up some space and money.

5) Sign RPs Keith Foulke and Jason Isringhausen

Ryan Madson did a good job as “the bridge to Lidge” this season, but he has too good of an arsenal and too much endurance to be limited as a one-inning reliever in a set-up role. Madson has the arm to be successful in just about any role, but he would be more valuable in a J.P. Howell-type role where he could throw multiple innings in relief. He could be in the mix for a rotation spot, but after back-to-back seasons of 3.05 ERAs in relief and struggling in his last stint as a starter, they’ll probably want to keep him in the bullpen as a long reliever. As a result, you add two crafty veterans arms that will come cheap and have the experience and track records to be solid set-up men, if they can stay healthy. Signing Foulke and Isringhausen would be risky, but it wouldn’t cost much and they have the depth to absorb either one, should they struggle mightily. Foulke was pitching well before getting hurt last year, but rehabbed well and had all of 2007 off, so his arm should be well rested. Izzy completely lost his stuff last year and has some serious arm problems, but has all spring to work out the kinks and revive his career as a reliever. He’s probably no more than a good bullpen filler, but even if he can’t close anymore, he could still be somewhat effective if he makes the adjustments. I’d give them both one-year, $1 million deals depending on their health this offseason.

6) Sign C Ivan Rodriguez

Pudge’s career is on its very last legs and while he’s a shell of his former self, he still has a decent bat and isn’t a defensive liability. Take into account his experience, his game-managing skills, and veteran presence and he’d be a good fit for the team. Pitchers love Carlos Ruiz and his defense and poise behind the plate evoke memories of a younger Pudge, but the Phillies are bascially sending out a 7-man lineup when he starts. He struggled to hit above .200 all season long and had but 18 extra-base hits and 31 RBIs. He doesn’t strikeout much, which is a plus, but I don’t think any team can afford to play him everyday after a .219-4-31 season. He could improve with experience, but as he gets that experience, it would be nice to add a veteran like Pudge in a timeshare to complement him with a better hitting option. It also allows Chris Coste to serve as the emergency catcher and back-up at all the corner infield and outfield spots.

7) Sign 3B Joe Crede, platoon with Greg Dobbs at third base

After an unimpressive offensive campaign from Pedro Feliz, the Phillies should also be looking to upgrade at 3B. Crede is a serious and perennial injury risk, but even in 97 games last year, he had better numbers than Feliz’s full-season workload. If Crede doesn’t have to play everyday, he could stay healthy for most of a season and platooning him with Dobbs would help keep both part-time players fresh. Crede was absolutely dreadful against lefty pitching last year with a .122 AVG, but prior to 2007, always hit lefties better than righties. Crede would have to start against lefties and a good number of righties, while Dobbs would spell Crede at least once or twice a week to rest him against righty starters. I don’t know what Crede is expecting this offseason, but he shouldn’t get a multiyear deal. If I’m the Phillies, I’d offer him a one-year, $4 million incentive-laden deal with a big 2nd year team option, so he can prove himself able to stay healthy and earn  a big contract next offseason. The move would also them to part ways with the disappointing Pedro Feliz.

8) Trade 3B Pedro Feliz to Padres for RP Clay Hensley

The Padres would take one Feliz’s remaining $4.5 million deal for this season, as they could desperately use veteran bats with pop, in exchange for starter-turned-reliever Hensley, who has grown out of favor. Henlsey can make for a decent spot starter and handy long reliever, but he’s more a filler pitcher, who can eat up garbage time innings. He’d probably have to fight for a roster spot, but it’s worth it to ship off the remaining year of Feliz’s contract to the power-hungry Padres.

9) Send SPs Adam Eaton & Kyle Kendrick to AAA; make SP J.A. Happ the #5 starter

Both Eaton and Kendrick had terribly disappointing campaigns and don’t leave a lot of promise for this season. Eaton was completely hittable in his starts and didn’t respond well to minor-league hitters upon being demoted. In 7 minor league starts, he was 0-5 with a 7.02 ERA. There’s no way anyone would take on a penny of that contract, so rather than pay him to not play, I’d send him back down and have him work out the kinks. Similar to Eaton, but younger and cheaper, Kendrick became entirely too hittable as well. Kendrick is a good ground ball pitcher and can get outs, but he walks too many batters for a guy without great stuff and needs to cut back on the long balls. Happ would give the Phillies three lefties in the rotation, which somewhere between perfect and overkill for their rotation. He pitched exceptionably well in AAA in 2008 and held his own in 4 starts and 4 relief appearance for the Phillies in the majors. He’s a good, power-pitching lefty with upside and should round out the rotation nicely.

10) Let RP Scott Eyre, 2B Tadahito Iguchi, & OF Matt Stairs go

All three veterans were nice midseason adds to bolster their playoff runs and Eyre, especially, was a key contributor. The Phillies already have Romero, though, as a lefty, and Eyre should be highly sought after. I think the Yankees will make a run at him, and there’s really no need to try and go dollar-for-dollar with them when you already have a great veteran lefty. Iguchi could come back on a minor league deal if he doesn’t land a contract. Stairs is a good power-hitting lefty, but he needs to be a DH and there’s simply no room for him on this team. That, and he is regressing rapidly and could be on the verge of retirement.

11) Swap SS JImmy Rollins and CF Shane Victorino in the lineup

They’re both switch-hitters which is great, but Victorino is faster on the bases and Rollins has more pop. I understand wanting to have a spark-plug like Rollins leading off, but with his power, he could drive in a lot more runs batting behind Victorino rather than a non-hitting catcher and the pitcher. I think Victorino is the prototypical leadoff hitter and Rollins would have more value as a 20/20 guy hitting second entrenched in the solid part of the lineup.

As a result, if I were in the Phillies’ front office this offseason, calling the shots, here’s the team I would try and assemble…

The 2009 Philadelphia Phillies
Manager: Charlie Manuel

Starting Lineup
1. Shane Victorino, CF
2. Jimmy Rollins, SS
3. Pat Burrell, LF
4. Ryan Howard, 1B
5. Chase Utley, 2B
6. Jayson Werth, RF
7. Ivan Rodriguez, C
8. Joe Crede, 3B*
9. Pitcher

Bench
Carlos Ruiz (C)
Chris Coste (C/1B/OF)
Greg Dobbs (1B/3B/OF)*
Eric Bruntlett (IF/OF)
Geoff Jenkins (OF)

Starting Rotation
1. Cole Hamels
2. Brett Myers
3. Jamie Moyer
4. Joe Blanton
5. J.A. Happ

Bullpen
Brad Lidge (Closer)
Keith Foulke (Set-up man)
J.C. Romero
Jason Isringhausen
Clay Condrey
Ryan Madson
Chad Durbin

Assessment: The focus of this offseason should be on locking up the young, arbitration-eligible talent they have (Howard, Hamels, Blanton, Werth) more so than bringing in veterans. Nevertheless, the Phillies could use upgrades at 3B and C and with the additions of Crede and Pudge, have much more flexibility at both. The rotation remains intact and one of the premiere bullpens in the National League adds some crafty veteran arms, but is generally in the same condition of a year ago. The big concern here will be the spending, as the Phillies will have to find a way to cut corners to be able to give Burrell a new deal and keep their potent lineup around for another season. If they can find the money by shipping out some veterans, they should have another great core available to them for another run in 2009, even if it means paying Adam Eaton $9 million to pitch in AAA.

Up Next: Toronto Blue Jays

Here’s what I would do if I was the Chicago White Sox’ GM this offseason…

The 2009 Chicago White Sox Fantasy GM

1) Exercise Option on DH Jim Thome

$13 million is a lot of money for a one-dimensional power hitter who can no longer take the field on defense, but Thome showed that, despite his age, he can still shoulder the load and help carry a team with bat. Thome still possesses brute power and has hit at least 34 HR each of his three seasons in Chicago. He’s also walked over 90 times each season and scored an impressive 93 runs last season. The White Sox already exercise his $13 million option, and it was the right move to make. Of the team’s one-dimensional power hitters, he’s still got the most raw power and is the most experience veteran presence. He shores up the DH position and keeps that powerful heart of the lineup intact for one more season.

2) Decline Option on OF Ken Griffey, Jr.

Once the White Sox picked up Thome’s option, it made Griffey expendable. With Thome at DH, Konerko at 1B, and Dye and Quentin in the corner outfield spots, it would’ve relegated Griffey to the bench or waiting for an injury. It’d be very unlikely he’d be content with a role on the bench and it’d be even less likely the White Sox would content with paying him $16 million next season to sit on the bench. They can buy him out for $4 million, which is a good chunk of change to not retain someone’s services, but that’s the price you pay for acquiring veterans on their last legs before the trade deadline. The White Sox have too many aging power hitters to keep Griffey around and they’ll still get by declining his option.

3) Resign SS Orlando Cabrera

Cabrera will likely be a highly-pursued free agent option for many teams and for good reason. The free agent shortstop pool is extremely thin and Cabrera is still a reliable veteran with both the glove and the bat. It seems unlikely that the White Sox will keep him, but I think they should try and lock him up with a short-term contract. At 34, he’ll probably hit a wall eventually, but his glove is still so good, that it’s a distant concern. He can still lead off, steal bases, and score runs. He’s not the greatest veteran presence, but he fills a role that the White Sox desperately need and that’s a top-of-the-lineup hitter with speed. Keeping him lets you keep Alexei Ramirez at 2B. Moving Ramirez to SS is an option, but if I’m the White Sox, I rather have Ramirez focus on patching up the holes in his swing and learning to draw walks rather than learn a new position this offseason. I’d give Cabrera a 3-year, $24 million deal to stay on board as the starting SS.

4) Exercise option on C Toby Hall

Hall is your prototypical back-up catcher. He hits well when called upon, is a good defender and game-caller, and can spell A.J. Pierzynski once a week with relative success. He’s nothing special, but he’s a good complement to Pierzynski and gives the White Sox one of the better catching tandems in the league. His option is a bit expensive at $2.25 million, but I’d pick it up this year and groom a replacement in the minors in 2009. Hall could be looked at as a starter again, but he’s best suited as a back-up, a role he has served well for the White Sox.

5) Participate in three-way trade with Diamondbacks and Royals to acquire CF Eric Byrnes, 3B Mark Teahen, and RP Robinson Tejeda in exchange for RP Octavio Dotel and 1B/OF Nick Swisher

I already referenced this trade in the Arizona Diamondbacks Fantasy GM and I think making a trade like this helps fills the two gaping holes in the lineup going into next season: CF and 3B. The White Sox had Swisher and then Griffey masquerading in center and need to find someone with speed and range to cover the field. Byrnes is going into his second year of his 3-year, $33 million contract after looking lost at the plate and suffering a season-ending injury in 2008. He’d make for a tremendous fourth outfielder, but he’s good enough with the glove and has enough speed to not kill this team in centerfield. He and Brian N. Anderson would make for a very good two-headed monster in CF next season. They’d also acquire jack-of-all-trades Mark Teahen, who has shown to be a defensive asset at 1B, 3B, and RF. He’d give the lineup good flexibility, a decent bottom-of-the-order lefty bat, and a platoon option for the up-and-coming Josh Fields at 3B, should they keep him. They’d relinquish Octavio Dotel, which would hurt, but they’d more than survive with Jenks-Linebrink-Thornton in the back of the bullpen. They’d also rid themselves of Nick Swisher, the least valuable of their one-dimensional power hitters from 2008.

6) Do not resign 3B Joe Crede & IF Juan Uribe

After another injury-marred season, Joe Crede’s career with the White Sox will be over this offseason. He got off to a promising start, but yet again, spent the bulk of the season on the DL. He’s still a good defensive 3B when healthy and has pop, but it doesn’t appear he’ll be able to stay at the hot corner and off the DL simultaneously for extended periods of the time. Crede’s cotnract expires this offseason and the White Sox need to move on and find someone who will reliably give them 120 games at 3B next season. Uribe, on the other hand, is a good utility infielder, but he’s slowed significantly and his main asset at the plate is his power, which they already have enough of. He’s also still a fringe starter and will likely want a multi-million dollar deal. I’d let him walk for a cheaper, young, faster, more-defensive oriented utility infielder.

7) Cut SP Jose Contreras; sign SP Pedro Martinez

Contreras has on-year, $10 million left on his cotnract, which is far too much money to pay a 37-year old pitcher for 20 starts of 4.54 ERA. I’d reach a settlement with him and set him free. Luckily for the White Sox, they have a good quartet already in place in the rotation and a few promising major-league ready arms, so they can afford to gamble a bit with the 5th starting spot. I’d offer a contract to Pedro Martinez, who appears to be done, but wants to pitch one more season and is worth the gamble. He’ll be 38 next year and his velocity is all but nil, but he looked like he was cooked in 2006-2007 before he had a brilliant September in 2007. He struggled this season, but has his moments. The biggest problem is he’ll tax the bullpen, since he doesn’t have the endurance for more than 6 innings. That said, with his competitiveness and history of dominance, I’d roll the dice and offer him a one-year, $2.5 million deal. It’s a huge pay cut, but I highly doubt anyone else offers more after his 5.61 ERA this season.

8) Trade 3B Josh Fields to Oakland for IF Cliff Pennington & low-level pitching prospect

I know I said acquiring Teahen would make for a good platoon with him and Fields, but it appears as if Fields is still not reaching his potential. He struggled in AAA and looked completely lost at the plate in the majors. He’s got pop and is a good right-handed batter, but having him sit on the bench for the majority of the season as a part-time player, who still struggles against major-league pitching seems like a lost cause for a win-now team. Trading Fields will free up a spot for a more experience right-handed bat to platoon with Teahen and the acquisition of Pennington gives the Sox a speedy, good contact-hitting utility infielder to cheaply replace Uribe.

9) Sign 3B Aaron Boone

Boone isn’t a glamorous platoon option at 3B with Mark Teahen, but he’s still a pretty solid hitter and can handle 1B/2B/3B. He hit a solid .275/.365/.451 against lefties this season and should come cheaply. I’d give him a one-year, $1 million deal as he got from the Nationals last offseason. He’d technically platoon with Teahen, but would only see time as a starter against the top lefty starting pitchers.

10) Sign RP Alan Embree

Embree’s contract option is almost certainly to be decline and bought out for $500,000 by the A’s, who have a ton of young lefty arms ready to fill the void at a fraction of the price. Embree gives the White Sox another veteran reliever to absorb the loss of Dotel. He’d also give them a situational lefty to allow Thornton to continue to devleop as a late-inning set-up man. Embree should be able to be had for one-year, $1 million.

11) Pick up manager Ozzie Guillen’s 2009 option

Guillen earned this after taking this team to the playoffs. He’s a controversial character, but he clearly has a strong desire to win. He’s not the greatest baseball mind, but he’s a good, fiery manager and does a good job handling a veteran clubhouse. He oversaw the devleopment of a lot of young players this season and you don’t want to risk stunting their growth with a new managerial regime. I’d bring him back for at least another year after the job he did with this team in 2008.

As a result, if I’m the Chicago White Sox’ GM this offseason, this is the team I would assemble…

The 2009 Chicago White Sox
Manager: Ozzie Guillen

Starting Lineup
1. Eric Byrnes, CF
2. Orlando Cabrera, SS
3. Carlos Quentin, LF
4. Jim Thome, DH
5. Jermaine Dye, RF
6. Paul Konerko, 1B
7. A.J. Pierzynski, C
8. Alexei Ramirez, 2B
9. Mark Teahen, 3B

Bench
Toby Hall (C)
Cliff Pennington (IF)
Aaron Boone (1B/3B)
Brian N. Anderson (OF)

Starting Rotation
1. Javier Vazquez
2. John Danks
3. Mark Buehrle
4. Gavin Floyd
5. Pedro Martinez

Bullpen
Bobby Jenks (Closer)
Scott Linebrink (Set-up man)
Matt Thornton
Alan Embree
D.J. Carrasco
Mike MacDougal
Robinson Tejeda

Assessment: I think this is an even better team on paper than the team that opened the 2008 season and eventually made it to the playoffs this season. The offense keeps its power-hitting studs in Dye, Quentin, Thome, and Konerko, while adding more balance and another left-handed bat. You’ve got power in the middle and speed at the top and bottom in Byrnes, Cabrera, and Ramirez. The bench has a good mix of veterans and young talent, good hitters, and versatile plus defenders. The pitching staff was the staple of the team and though it’s a bit of wishful thinking asking for duplicate seasons from Danks and Floyd, you can’t break up that solid rotation. It’s also likely that even if the young pitchers slightly regress, there’s the possibility to improvement by Vazquez and Buehlre. Dotel is a tough loss, but the bullpen is still very good and has the depth to absorb it. If Thornton is legit, he, Linebrink, and the close, Jenks, make for a great back-end and good enough to help make this team a playoff contender again in 2009.

Up Next: Philadelphia Phillies

Here’s what I would do if I’m the Arizona Diamondbacks’ GM this offseason…

The 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks Fantasy GM

1) Resign SP Randy Johnson

Johnson was effective in 2007 in 10 starts before suffering arm injuries, but he came back strong in 2008, staying healthy and remaining effective. Johnson looked his best since his first stint in Arizona prior to being dealt to the Yankees. Johnson made 30 starts on the season, throwing a solid 184.0 IP, and avoided the DL. His pitches showed better movement than ever before to account for lost velocity and as he harnessed the control of his new arsenal of pitches, his strikeout rate dramatically increased down the stretch. His ERA went from 5.23 in the first half to 2.41 in the second half and, despite a late-season injury causing him to miss a start, he looked like a durable middle-of-the-rotation starter at age 44. He’s a high injury risk and very good chance to regress with all the mileage on his arm, but he had a very promising finish. I’d give him a one-year deal and hope he can continue to dominate as he wills himself to 300 career wins. You’d be overpaying for a #3/#4 starter by giving him 1-year, $9 million, but you’d be getting a lefty staple and veteran and one of the best back-end pitchers in the league if he could stay healthy. A regression is likely, but he’s still got good enough stuff to be effective if his arm holds up.

2) Resign RP Juan Cruz; let RP Brandon Lyon become a free agent

Since 2007, Cruz has made 110 appearances, going 10-1, with 158 strikeouts and a 2.88 ERA in 112.2 IP. There are few right-handed pitchers who are good enough to be one-batter righty specialists, but Cruz is one of the few. He has tremendous stuff and a live arm, as seen by his ridiculous strikeout totals, but he’s also highly successful against left-handed batters (.159 BAA, 0 HRA in 2008). He can come up in big spots as a righty specialist or give you a solid middle-inning of work; he’s a niche pitcher who makes for a great bridge reliever to the back-end of the bullpen. He has the stuff to close, but he’s much better suited in his current role. I’d give him a 3-year, $7.5 million deal to keep him in the pen. Conversely, I’d let Brandon Lyon hit free agency. Lyon imploded in the second half of the season en route to losing his job as a closer. The problem with the pen this season was that between Lyon, Rauch, Qualls, and Tony Pena, you had four very good set-up men, but not one made for a good closer. Lyon is a good reliever, but he’s not a good closer, and the team already has enough glorified set-up men.

3) Let OF Adam Dunn hit free agency

The Diamondbacks gave up three players for Adam Dunn prior to the trade deadline to boost the lineup, but it became evident that simply installing another power bat into the offense wasn’t going to solve the problem of not enough contact hitters and not enough emphasis on defense. The Diamondbacks gave up a defensive-oriented catcher prospect, a marginal pitching prospect, and Micah Owings, who could end up being a 1B as well as he could a pitcher, so they shouldn’t feel much commitment to keep Dunn. He hit .243 with 8 HR and 26 RBI in 44 games with the team and did nothing to revive the offense. The problem is that the Diamondbacks already have enough pure power hitters that don’t hit for average and strikeout way too often in Mark Reynolds, Chad Tracy, Chris B. Young, and Justin Upton. They need someone who can hit for power and average and be a better veteran presence in the heart of their lineup. Dunn, all things considered, isn’t very valuable to winning games – his enormous power stroke excluded, and for the contract he’s going to want this offseason, it just isn’t worth it for the franchise.

4) Trade SP Yusmeiro Petit, RP Tony Pena, & a low-level OF prospect to Orioles for 3B/OF Aubrey Huff

The solution to the loss of Dunn and the need for a veteran power hitter for LF could be found on the fledgling Orioles. The Orioles have a nice veteran lineup but they’re not going anywhere in that division and without some serious pitching help. Their best bet is to deal guys like Huff and Melvin Mora coming off career years and maximizing their values by getting good, young pitchers for them. The Diamondbacks have talent to spare on the pitching staff and they could survive by parting ways with Petit and Pena. Petit has showed great promise at times as a starter and would probably make for a good, young #5 for the Diamondbacks, but the rotation will already be filled. Pena is another above-average arm with closing potential, but the Diamondbacks already havea bunch of good arms that can capably serve as set-up men. In exchange for them, they’ll get Huff, who hit .304 with 32 HR and 108 RBI. It wasn’t long ago that Huff was carrying the Rays’ offense and was considered one of the best all-around power hitters in the league. He’s faded in recent years, but revived his career this year. It could be a fluke, but he’s always shown great power and he’s still only 31 years old. There’s a very good chance he was stuck in a slump as he bounced around and has rediscovered his stroke. Another 2008-type season and he’d fill a huge void in this lineup. Assuming his last year of his contract at $8 million is not a big deal at all.

5) Participate in three-way trade with Royals and White Sox, giving up OF Eric Byrnes, SP Evan MacLane, and P Brandon Medders and getting RP Octavio Dotel

In my proposed three-way trade the Diamondbacks would send OF Eric Byrnes to the White Sox and pitchers MacLane and Medders to the Royals. The White Sox would send RP Octavio Dotel to the Diamonbacks and 1B/OF Nick Swisher to the Royals and would receive OF Eric Byrnes from the Diamonbacks and 3B Mark Teahen and P Robinson Tejeda from the Royals. The Royals would send 3B Mark Teahen to the White Sox and receive Nick Swisher from the White Sox and pitchers Evan MacLane and Brandon Medders from the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks would free up money from the ill-fated Eric Byrnes’ contract and give up two decent minor league arms to obtain Dotel, who had a very good year as the White Sox’ 7th inning man and showed with a phenomenal strikeout rate and good stuff, that he still has what it takes to close when he’s healthy. He’d give them the stopper they need and would allow Rauch, Qualls, and Cruz to excel in roles better suited to them.

6) Platoon Chad Tracy and Mark Reynolds at 3B

Tracy and Reynolds isn’t a glamorous platoon, but the two complement each other well and would combine for above-average offensive production at 3B. Tracy, the veteran lefty bat, can still be a good contact hitter, has some pop, and plays a solid 3B. Not making him play everyday should also help keep him fresh and off the DL. Meanwhile, Reynolds has a great arm and good range at 3B, but he’s too error-prone to play everyday. He also strikeouts way too much, as seen by his single-season strikeout record this season. He’d be able to play against righties and favorable matchups and would make up for Tracy’s declining power and speed. They could also mix-and-match with Huff at 3B and Tracy or Reynolds in LF occassionally. It gives the team options and variability and should keep everyone fresh and reduce Reynolds’ chance of being a liability in the field.

7) Sign 2B Mark Ellis & IF Nick Punto

Ellis is a low-upside, solid veteran bat that has sneaky power and speed and 15/15 potential. He doesn’t do anything above average but he has the intangibles to be worth playing everyday and is a good clutch hitter. He doesn’t hit for average or power, but he can slap singles and steal a handful of bases while giving you a good glove at 2B. He’d be a nice veteran presence on the team and he could see his numbers spike in a hitter-friendly park and in a superior lineup to what he played in as an Athletic. He’d be a good, cheaper replacement for Orlando Hudson. I’d give him a 2-year, $8 million deal. I’d also add Nick Punto, who has become a very good contact hitter, pinch-runner, and all-around defensive sub over the past three years. He would give them a good bat off the bench and versatility in the field. He could even see significant time at 2B or spell Reynolds at 3B to improve the defense when needed. I’d give him a one-year, $2 million deal.

8) Bring back OF Luis Gonzalez

Gonzalez, a former All-Star and fan-favorite in Arizona, spent last season serving as a back-up OF for the Marlins and showed he could still be useful off the bench. He was a great mentor for the young Marlins’ outfielders last season, handled both corner OF spots with success, did well as a pinch-hitter, and still had some decent pop. He’d fit in well in the same role in a return to Arizona next season. He’d be a good influence on Upton and Young and could fill in for Upton, if he’s still not ready to play everyday. He’s an experienced lefty bat, and despite the fact that he’ll be 41 next season, he still slugged .413 last year. The Diamondbacks tried bringing in Trot Nixon last offseason, but that didn’t work, and youngsters Alex Romero and Jeff Salazar don’t have the bats to be 4th OFs. Gonzalez got 1-year, $1 million from the Diamondbacks and I’d be willing to double that this offseason with a one-year, $2 million deal.

9) Sign RP Horacio Ramirez

Ramirez was a mid-level pitching prospect for the Braves and showed he could be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher despite average stuff. He was dealt to the Mariners and was handled poorly. He went from Seattle to Kansas City and showed he could be an effective major-leaguer and appeared to find his calling as a long reliever, posting a 2.59 ERA for the Royals in 24.1 IP this season. Then the Royals flipped him to the White Sox and he got rocked again in a non mop-up/long relief role, posting a 7.62 ERA in 13.1 IP. He finished with a 4.34 ERA this season and still showed signs of being effective in a long relief role. If he’s not a lefty, he probably doesn’t get a contract this offseason, but because he is, he has some value here. He can serve as a mop-up man, long reliever, spot-starter if anything happens to veteran lefties Randy Johnson and Doug Davis and allows Doug Slaten to slide into a LOOGY role. I’d give him a one-year, $500,000 guaranteed contract and he’d probably happily take it. You can’t ask for much, but it’s a low-risk, moderate-reward transaction to fill out the bullpen.

10) Bump CF Chris B. Young down in the lineup

Young has been used as a leadoff hitter, but he is much better suited in a more power-oriented spot. He strikes out too much and doesn’t take enough pitches to lead off. It also limits the number of runners on base when he comes up and he does have a great power stroke. He needs to fix the holes in his swing and he could be a 30/30 guy and that kind of potential is wasted in a leadoff spot. Mark Ellis is not a very good leadoff hitter, but he’s the best option on the team. He doesn’t strikeout much, has a very good K/BB rate, has some speed, and is a smart hitter and baserunner, even if he’s not a typical sparkplug leadoff hitter.

As a result, if I’m making the personnel moves as the Diamondbacks’ GM this offseason, this is the team I’d put together for next season…

The 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks
Manager: Bob Melvin

Starting Lineup
1. Mark Ellis, 2B
2. Stephen Drew, SS
3. Chris B. Young, CF
4. Aubrey Huff, LF
5. Conor Jackson, 1B
6. Justin Upton, RF
7. Mark Reynolds, 3B*
8. Chris Snyder, C
9. Pitcher

Bench
Miguel Montero (C)
Chad Tracy (1B/3B/OF)*
Nick Punto (IF)
Chris Burke (IF/OF)
Luis Gonzalez (OF)

Starting Rotation
1. Brandon Webb
2. Dan Haren
3. Randy Johnson
4. Max Scherzer
5. Doug Davis

Bullpen
Octavio Dotel (Closer)
Jon Rauch (Set-up Man)
Chad Qualls
Juan Cruz
Leo Rosales
Doug Slaten
Horacio Ramirez

Assessment: The main idea behind this offseason is to deal some of the pitching surplus to address the two biggest needs, fixing a one-dimensional lineup and finding a closer. The Diamondbacks quite possibly have the best 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation in Webb and Haren and one of the best rotations in baseball with future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson, lefty Doug Davis, and phenom Max Scherzer. The retooled bullpen gives them one of the best overall staffs in baseball, though the middle relievers could be a bit shaky. All in all, it comes down to good coaching, defense, and consistency for this team, because the lineup is good enough for the team to lean on the stud pitchers to make a return trip to the playoffs. They’ll need Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, and Chris B. Young to continue to progress as hitters and another big year from newly-acquired clean-up hitter Aubrey Huff, and they should be able to overcome 2008′s demons and find a better balance rather than fall apart again in 2009.

Up Next: Chicago White Sox

If I’m the Rays’ GM this offseason, these are the moves I would make…

The 2009 Tampa Bay Rays Fantasy GM

1) Exercise option on OF Carl Crawford

When healthy, Crawford is the most important piece of the Rays’ lineup. 2008 was a down year for the 27-year old, but he was still an above-average #2 hitter, a dangerous lefty bat, and one the best base stealers in the AL. He’s got speed to burn, can hit for average, and plays a very good left field. He is a homegrown talent that was brought up through the ranks and has become a vocal centerpiece for this young team. He’s still young himself with perhaps his best years ahead of him still, so that is why I’d make this the first move of the offseason. Crawford’s option is for $8.25 million this season, which would be well below market value. I’d exercise the option and immediately offer a contract extension, because if he hits free agency next offseason, the Rays will unlikely be able to match the offers he’ll get from big-market clubs. Picking up the option helps keep the speedy, high-upside top of the order intact for a very fair price.

2) Exercise option of OF Rocco Baldelli

It’s anybody’s guess for how long Baldelli will stay healthy for with a history full of injury and a mitochondrial issue that wears him down quickly. Despite his health concerns, he showed that he could still be an effective hitter, solid defender, and still has his speed upon returning from injury this season. He’s one of the smartest players in the game and has all five tools; it’s always just been a matter of staying healthy. Unfortunately, he’s probably never going to be the superstar many anticipated he would, but he’s developed into a solid veteran. The option calls for either a $6 million contract for 2009 or a $4 million buy-out. Based on the math alone, you have to pick it up. Might as well pay the extra $2 million and hope you can use him as a DH or off the bench. I’d pick up the option and hope to be able to utilize him off the bench or as a DH next season to preserve his health.

3) Trade SP Wade Davis to Royals for OF Jose Guillen, $8 million

The Rays could strongly use a reliable, power-hitting veteran to give Carlos Pena some protection in the lineup and a veteran player hungry to win now. Guillen may have some character issues and isn’t a great veteran presence in the clubhouse, but would be one in the lineup. He hit .264-20-97 last season for an anemic Royals’ offense and held his own defensively. The Rays only had three hitters reach at least 20 HR this season, and one of which, Eric Hinske, is a back-up and a free agent in the offseason. Longoria is likely to be bumped up to the #3 spot with lefty Carlos Pena hitting behind him at clean-up. Right now, the #5 spot is up-for-grabs, but whoever it would be, wouldn’t likely give him nearly as much protection as Guillen would. Guillen has $24 million left on his two-year deal, so I’d require the Royals to eat at least one-third of it in exchange for 23-year old SP Wade Davis, who is readt to pitch in the majors next season. He went 4-2 with a 2.72 ERA in 9 AAA starts and if it wasn’t for the depth of the Rays pitching, he’d probably have already made him major-league debut.

4) Sign CL Brian Fuentes

This may seem like overkill, since the Rays had one of the best bullpens last season, but two things should be taken into account – its ranking was reliant on Troy Percival’s hot start (and he cooled off dramatically in the second half while dealing with injury) and that the team lacks a legitimate full-time closer. Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell, and Grant Balfour have all done excellent jobs in their roles and their roles have played a big part in that. Wheeler did well as a part-time closer, but we saw him struggle in Houston as the go-to ninth inning guy. Fuentes takes a great bullpen and makes it the best in baseball and allows everyone to continue to thrive in their current roles. He’s also one of the best and most reliable closers in the game and would be an upgrade to an aging Percival and spot-closing Wheeler and Balfour from this season. He’s going to be highly-pursued but the Rays should be able to expand their payroll a decent amount and I’d give him a four-year, $32 million deal with a fifth year option worth about $10 million to get him on board. It’s pricey, but I don’t think I’d feel comfortable with having to rely on a banged-up Percival, Wheeler, or Balfour to have to be the everyday closer next season.

5) Exercise option on RP Trever Miller

Another player that has been a big part of this bullpen thanks to part to thriving in his role is 35-year old lefty, Trever Miller, who has a $2 million option for 2009. Miller had a modest 4.15 ERA this season, but had a solid 44/20 K/BB rate, was effective against left-handed batters (.209 BAA), and allowed the team’s other lefty reliever, J.P. Howell, to thrive as the long man. Miller fills the LOOGY (Lefty One-Out Guy) role capably and it’s worth the $2 million to keep this impressive bullpen intact for another run in 2009.

6) Trade SP Edwin Jackson to Colorado for SS Chris Nelson, RP Steven Register

The Rays opened the season with Jackson in the rotation because they didn’t couldn’t send him to the minors after he ran out of options in 2007. They stuck it out with Jackson, though it seemed his release would inevitable. As fate would have it, Jackson finally started to settle down and make some progress. He was a top minor league prospect for years with the Dodgers and Rays, but never seemed to be able to put it all together consistently in the majors and had some major control issues. it doesn’t appear as if he’ll ever be the frontline starter he projected as in the minors, but his 14-win, 4.42 ERA campaign from this season gives the hope that he could develop into a solid #3 if the improvement continues. He just turned 25 and has shown good resiliency and endurance, so it won’t be hard finding a suitor. The Rockies can always use starting pitching and would make Jackson their #4. In exchange, the Rays would get the Rockies’ former #1 pick in 2004, SS Chris Nelson, and a handy reliever in Steven Register, who was returned to the Rockies last season after the Mets drafted him in the Rule V draft and nearly put him on the roster. This helps clear up the logjam of pitchers and makes room for David Price to step into the rotation next season.

7) Sign IF Chone Figgins

Figgins has spent the past two seasons at 3B for the Angels, but his bat is much better suited for a middle-infield role and the Rays could use him as their starting 2B. He’s played under Joe Maddon before and would the team even more speed and the ideal leadoff hitter so Crawford could continue to flourish in the #2 spot. Figgins is a good switch-hitter with a plus-glove at 2B and 3B and has 127 SBs over the last three seasons. He and Crawford would give pitchers fits at the top of the lineup once on base and would set the table nicely for the heart of the order. Figgins at 30 is still at his prime, but old enough to make a nice veteran impact. His addition would allow Akinori Iwamura to slide into either a platoon at SS or make him one of the best infield-utility players in the league.

8) Decline option on OF Cliff Floyd; let 1B/3B/OF Eric Hinske become a free agent

Floyd had a nice run to start the season as the team’s veteran power hitter and DH, but as has been the story of Floyd’ career, his season was derailed by injury. His final numbers of .268-11-39 are decent, but he played in less of the team’s games in 2008 and is useless defensively. He’ll be 36 next season and is well past his prime. His contract can be bought out for a reasonable $250,000. Hinske had a good run and is a nice versatile veteran and lefty bat, but he slumped severely in the second half. He’ll want a major-league deal next season after hitting 20 HR in 2008, but the Rays have plenty of other options avaialble that are younger and will likely be cheaper, including Gabe Gross, Justin Ruggiano, Jonny Gomes, and Dan Johnson. I’d let him walk and replace him internally.

8) Move SP David Price into the rotation

Price is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball and the Rays have rapidly moved him along as such. He made his in September this year after impressing at each minor league stop and pitched well in the majors. He posted a 1.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and struck out 12 in 14.1 IP. He showed enough for the Rays to trust him enough to be put on the postseason roster and there’s no point in relinquishing the trust now. Price has major-league ready stuff and has tremendous poise. He’s pitched well against major-league hitting and it doesn’t seem to make sense to send him back to AAA next season. He can easily be inserted as the #4 starter, where he’ll have little pressure on him to carry the team and just take the ball every fourth day. If he struggles, you can option him back down and replace with a myriad of pitchers. He has nothing left to prove in the minors and there’s no sense playing the waiting game if the spot is open for him. Look how well Longoria progressed as the team’s starting 3B. The Rays need to be willing to roll the dice and trust Price as they did Longoria for 2009.

9) Keep RP Troy Percival

It’ll probably be very tempting to cut Percival this offseason as he won’t be the closer, but they’ve got a decent amount of money tied up in him and they’re not risking much by holding onto him. He’s an injury risk, but he was pretty effective while healthy and even held his own for the most part as a closer. Next season, he could be a useful piece as a mid-inning reliever and he’s still a mentor to the younger pitchers on the team. He still has decent velocity, can pitch in some big spots, and has the intangibles and experience that can contribute to a young, up-and-coming bullpen. They lose nothing by at least holding onto him and seeing if he can be a decent middle-inning guy to open the season next year.

As a result, here’s the team I’d field in 2009, if I were the Rays’ GM…

The 2009 Tampa Bay Rays
Manager: Joe Maddon

Starting Lineup
1. Chone Figgins, 2B
2. Carl Crawford, LF
3. Evan Longoria, 3B
4. Carlos Pena, 1B
5. Jose Guillen, RF
6. B.J. Upton, CF
7. Rocco Baldelli, DH
8. Dioner Navarro, C
9. Jason Bartlett, SS

Bench
Shawn Riggans (C)
Akinori Iwamura (IF)
Willy Aybar (IF)
Justin Ruggiano (OF)

Starting Rotation
1. Scott Kazmir
2. James Shields
3. Matt Garza
4. David Price
5. Andy Sonnanstine

Bullpen
Brian Fuentes (Closer)
Dan Wheeler (Set-up man)
Grant Balfour
Troy Percival
Chad Bradford
Trever Miller
J.P. Howell

Assessment: The Rays really didn’t need much work with their tremendous talent and depth on the pitching staff. Thanks to their cheap, young players, they should have plenty of trade chips if need be and can afford to make a run at some top free agents. They add a frontline closer to give them one of the best bullpens in baseball and they find a veteran leadoff hitter and right fielder to shore up the lineup. They’ve got a ton of speed and decent power and one of the best and most versatile benches in baseball. They keep their big 3 atop the rotation and add lefty phenom David Price to the mix while keeping Andy Sonnanstine as the #5, though he could feasibly be a #3 SP elsewhere. This team has so many good pitchers that the slightly-improved lineup is good enough to make them a serious threat again in 2009. They’ve got too many superstars on the right side of 30 years old and with a true closer like Brian Fuentes, they could be even better on paper than their breakthrough 2008 season.

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