The Hall of Fame Debates
The newest series of articles I plan on sporadically writing about will explore the Hall of Fame chances of forty active players. Obviously, a number of active players (to be detailed below) are already surefire Hall-of-Famers, and as such, their Hall-of-Fame chances need not and will not be reviewed. However, it is not that simple.
First of all, the primary requirement for any player discussed is that they must have been at least 30 years old at the start of the 2010 MLB season. That does not mean every 30+ player with at least a minimal chance of reaching the Hall-of-Fame will be discussed. Certain players, such as 31-year old Brandon Webb, are not included, as his situation is currently too murky to adequately project into the future. A number of players over the age of 30 have been excluded due to the fact that their careers are still very young and have not accumulated enough playing time for me to predict the possibility of them being worthy of the Hall-of-Fame. Additionally, a player must not have officially retired. Therefore, a player such as Carlos Delgado, who despite not playing thus far in 2010, but has not yet announced his retirement, is eligible.
The biggest issue regarding the forthcoming Hall-of-Fame debates is the question I am asking. That question is precisely: do I believe that when this player retires, their on-the-field career, statistics, and accomplishments will be worthy of a Hall-of-Fame induction. This is instrumental to understanding the debates. The question is NOT: will this player ACTUALLY BE inducted into the Hall-of-Fame. In order to understand the distinction between this question and the question I am asking, just consider a number of players: Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens….you get the point. I’m not here to speculate on the vague issue of steroids. Additionally, a player such as Roberto Alomar is another example. I still believe Alomar had a HOF-worthy career, despite the fact that, in 2009, his first year on the ballot, he fell 8 votes short of getting elected and is still not currently a Hall-of-Famer for whatever inane reasoning. I am only analyzing what the player has accomplished on the field and the impact their play has had over the course of their careers.
Additionally, the question is NOT: is this player currently a Hall-of-Famer. For the vast majority of the players debated, the answer will obviously be no. How a player projects over the remainder of their career is instrumental in the debate as to whether or not they will be worthy of the Hall-of-Fame upon retirement.
Now that the basics have been established, I’ve identified twelve players who I believe have established surefire Hall-of-Fame caliber resumes based on what they’ve already accomplished. Most of these are self-explanatory, however, I’ve included a brief explanation of the twelve players that I won’t discuss due to the fact that I feel they’ve already created Hall-of-Fame resumes. They are, as follows:
1. Ken Griffey, Jr., OF, Mariners, Reds, White Sox
This one literally needs no explanation. He already announced his retirement midseason, but he finished 5th all-time in HRs with 630, top-15 all-time in RBIs, a 13-time All-Star, a 10-time Gold Glove winner. He was one of the greatest defensive centerfielders of all-time, and perhaps the most iconic and best pure hitter of the 1990s. The most unquestionable Hall-of-Famer of all active players at the start of the 2010.
2. Alex Rodriguez, SS/3B, Mariners, Rangers, Yankees
He’s currently one HR shy of 600, currently placing him at 7th all-time. He’s top-20 all-time in RBIs, a 3-time MVP, and a 13-time All-Star. He also just turned 35 and is still one of the best hitters in the league. When it’s all said and done, he could finish as the all-time HR leader in addition to reaching 3,000 hits (he currently has 2,629), 2,000 runs (he currently has 1,733), and stealing over 300 bases. There is the issue of steroids, but if we’re discussing strictly what he’s accomplished on the field, there is no question he’s had a Hall-of-Fame caliber career and may retire as one of the the five most accomplished hitters of all-time.
3. Manny Ramirez, OF, Indians, Red Sox, Dodgers
Like A-Rod, there are some serious off-the-field issues, including a suspension last season for testing positive for a banned substance as well as questions about his character and his ability to be a good teammate. However, his production cannot be denied. Perhaps the most consistent, diabolical hitter following the declines of Frank Thomas and Ken Griffey, Jr., he has amassed 554 HR, 1,827 RBI, 2,500+ hits, in addition to a .311 AVG and a 1.000 OPS. He also led the Red Sox to two World Series titles. His defense was always a liability, but he maintained a good arm in LF, and either way, it doesn’t come close to negating his career as one of the most feared and successful hitters of the last 20 years.
4. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals
Though he hasn’t amassed the career numbers of Griffey, A-Rod, or Manny, there is no doubt Pujols is already a Hall-of-Famer even if his career ended at the end of his 10th season. In just under ten years, he has 389 HRs (the most ever in a player’s first ten seasons), 1,182 RBI, an incredible 877/619 BB/K rate, a .331/.425/.623 batting line, a WS ring, 3 MVP awards and 4 MVP runner-up finishes, and is just shy of 2,000 hits. His accomplishments from 2001-10 may be the greatest of any player in any decade and he has cemented himself as the undisputed best player in baseball. The voters look for lengthy peaks of dominance and he’s already created a HOF-worthy one, even if he is mediocre for the rest of his career (fat chance).
5. Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees
He has created the ultimate storybook Hall-of-Fame career, with his tremendous poise, leadership, defensive prowess, along with five World Series rings and countless big plays and hits throughout his storied post-season career as a New Jersey-native and the most iconic Yankee since Mickey Mantle. If the intangibles weren’t enough, Jeter also has 2,862 hits and will have no problem reaching the illustrious 3,000 hit mark before his retirement. He’s also an 11-time All-Star with a .313 lifetime AVG, 300+ SB, and has scored over 1,600 runs. He’s been a model of consistency, never hitting below .290 in 15 full seasons and becoming one of the best all-around shortstops to ever play the game.
6. Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves
Although not as illustrious and lacking multiple World Series rings, Chipper’s career has somewhat paralleled Jeter’s. He spent his entire career with the Braves as their team leader and figurehead, reaching the playoffs on an almost-perennial basis and building an all-time great postseason resume. In addition to that, he’s one of the five greatest switch-hitters of all-time, has 433 career HR, .306 AVG, .405 OBP, more walks than strikeouts, and is nearing 2,500 hits (2,475). He’s been a modest, though consistent fielder throughout his career, and a model of consistency at the plate. In 13 seasons from 1996-08, he hit .305 or better 10 times, 25+ HRs 10 times, and drove in 100+ runs 9 times. He may not reach 500 HR, but it doesn’t diminish his HOF-caliber resume, given his all-around success as a hitter and an intangible team leader and perennial post-season producer.
7. Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Expos, Angels, Rangers
In 15 seasons in the majors, Vlad has amassed 427 HR, 1,395 RBI, and a lifetime .321 AVG. He won the MVP in 2004, has been elected to 9 All-Star teams, fell one HR shy of a 40/40 season in 2002, and is closing in on 2,500 career hits (2,362). Prior to last season’s injury-riddled campaign, he had12 straight years of 25 or more HRs and a .300 or better AVG, while becoming arguably the most dangerous hitter in baseball. Though his walk rate was never great (despite a lifetime .385 OBP), he cemented his legacy as being able to destroy any pitch located anywhere near the strikezone, whether above the chest or below the knees. He may have one of the strongest sets of wrists of any hitter of all-time, in addition to having one of the greatest arms in right field – gunning down 128 baserunners in his career (second to only Bobby Abreu among active RFs, despite far less playing time). He also owns the 14th best SLG of all-time.
8. Jim Thome, 1B/3B, Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Dodgers, Twins
Thome is the modern-day Harmon Killebrew, who, of course, was an unquestionable Hall-of-Famer in his own right. While he has evolved into a one-dimensional power hitter who can also still draw walks as he nears the twilight of his career, he was more than just a guy who can hit HRs. But first, it must be acknowledged that, as a HR hitter, he has been more prolific over the course of his career than the likes of Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, Frank Thomas, and Killebrew himself, as he currently sits as 10th all-time. His lifetime AVG of .277 is solid, if unimpressive, but it’s also a number that has naturally and steadily declined as he’s passed his prime. His AVG hovered around .290 prior to his age-32 season. He’s also 10th all-time in walks drawn and top-25 all-time in SLG and OPS. In addition to being one of the greatest natural HR hitters of all-time, he’ll finish his career with over 1,500 runs scored, 2,000 hits, and 1,600 walks.
9. Ivan Rodriguez, C, Rangers, Marlins, Tigers, Yankees, Astros, Nationals
The two greatest, most iconic, and most consistent catchers of this generation were Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez. For what Pudge lacked in terms of Piazza’s power, he made up for with superior defense and all-around talent. Both players helped redefine the catching position as a more offensive-oriented position in today’s game, while Pudge will go down as one of the greatest game managers of all-time, in addition to having one of the greatest arms of all-time behind the plate, as evidenced by him leading the league 9 times in CS%. He is also 1st all-time in games caught and putouts. Though he’ll likely fall short of 3,000 hits, his 2,777 hits as a catcher is remarkable and his .298 AVG is Hall-of-Fame worthy at the catcher position. In his nine-year peak from 1996-2004, he hit 19 or more HR 8 times, drove in 77 or more runs 7 times, batted over .300 8 times, and posted some of the greatest single-season offensive numbers ever seen from the catching position (though, there is some speculation regarding steroid use) – en route to winning the MVP in 1999. Given his contact-hitting abilities, his solid power (a solid 306 career HRs in addition to being 21st all-time in doubles) and his defensive abilities as one of the all-time greats, he has an undisputed HOF-worthy resume.
10. Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners
If we included his numbers in Japan, prior to joining the Mariners in 2001, Ichiro would be as slam-dunk a Hall-of-Famer as Ken Griffey, Jr. However, he didn’t join the majors until 2001 at the age of 27. He and Pujols began their careers at the very same time, and both have redefined the game and have become the very best at what they do in the past decade. If Pujols is the pre-eminent power hitter over the last decade, then Ichiro is the pre-eminent contact hitter. In each of his first 9 full seasons, he accumulated over 200 hits and is on pace to do so again for a tenth straight season in 2010. No player is even close to his 2,157 hits over the past decade. It comes as no surprise that he also has a whopping .331 career AVG and topped 100 runs in every season prior to 2009. Additionally, he’s racked up 364 stolen bases, 70 triples, and may be the best RF – considering range and arm strength – since Roberto Clemente. He’s been voted an All-Star and won a Gold Glove every season he’s been in the league, in addition to earning a ROY and MVP. The one knock is his lifetime OBP of .377 is merely adequate for a leadoff hitter, but his ability to turn routine groundouts into base hits is second-to-none. Additionally, despite only modest HR totals, scouts says he has 20+ HR power perennially, but focuses on getting singles and doubles in game situations given his role as leadoff hitter. Even if his career ended today, his star power, charisma, and uncanny abilities as one of the most dominant contact hitters and right fielders of all-time would be good enough for a Hall-of-Fame worthy career.
11. Mariano Rivera, CL, Yankees
Like Griffey, this is self-explanatory. Say what you want about the closer position, Rivera is the greatest all-time – and it’s not even close – and as easy as it seems to record three outs at the end of the game, while Rivera has dominated at doing so for over a decade, we’ve seen hundreds who have struggled at doing the very same job Rivera has excelled at with unparalleled success. The numbers speak for themselves: 547 career saves (2nd all-time), adjusted ERA+ of 206 (best all-time for any pitcher), 3.973 K/BB rate (4th best all-time for any pitcher), a 2.21 career ERA and 1.00 WHIP (3rd all-time for any pitcher). If that wasn’t enough – the accolades are unmatched as a reliever: 11-time All-Star, 5-time WS champion, a WS MVP winner in 1999, the most postseason saves (39), the best all-time post-season ERA (0.74), and longest consectutive scoreless innings streak in postseason history. He’s also honed his cut fastball, which may go down as the most unhittable pitch of all-time.
12. Trevor Hoffman, CL, Marlins, Padres, Brewers
He’s the only man in baseball history to record more saves than Rivera, sitting 1st all-time with 596 saves. Though not as dominant nor possessing anywhere near the post-season resume of Rivera, Hoffman is a 7-time All-Star and put together one of the greatest peaks of any closer all-time. In 13 full seasons (one lost due to injury) from 1996-2009, he recorded 37 or more saves 12 times, posted a sub-3.00 ERA 11 times, and averaged more than 1 K/IP 8 times (including 7 straight times from 1996-2002). Hoffman was a premier stopper for over a decade, unlike the journeyman, numbers-compiler Lee Smith, whom he overtook for the all-time saves lead. His 3.74 K/BB rate and 1.05 WHIP are further testaments to a Hall-of-Fame career that produced the most prolific closer of all-time.
13. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
No, I’m only kidding.
There are the 12 active players (Griffey included) who I consider surefire Hall-of-Famers at this point in their careers and therefore are not worth including in the upcoming Hall of Fame debates. One interesting note about the 12 players I believe are already Hall-of-Famers is that none of them are starting pitchers. I should’ve likely included Pedro Martinez on this as he has not officially retired and did pitch last season with the Phillies. However, I believe the fact that he hasn’t started throwing yet this season and has generated no interest by any team to do so has solidified the notion that he will never pitch again. Of course, if he were considered “active,” he would be included in this list of surefire Hall-of-Famers.
I have listed 40 players to debate whether or not they’ll produce Hall-of-Fame caliber resumes by the time they retire. The order in which I will discuss each player’s Hall-of-Fame prospects is to be determined based on which player’s case I find particularly interesting at the time; there is no pattern to the players I choose. I will analyze each upcoming player’s career, statistics, intangibles, comparables, and how they project into the future, before rendering a final yes or no answer as to whether or not I believe they retire with whatever constitutes a “Hall-of-Fame worthy” career. As always, debate is encouraged.
