2010 Fantasy GM: Detroit Tigers
Invariably, it seems every season at least one team must have a heart-breaking late-season collapse. In 2007 and 2008, it was the Mets. However, in 2009, the Mets were so bad, they were already so far out of it by August, that it became apparent someone would have to fill their shoes and crumble down the stretch. As it would turn out, that team would be the Detroit Tigers. Last offseason, the Tigers took a new approach, building their team on fundamentals and clearing house of aging, individualistic talents (see: Gary Sheffield). An improved defense, rejuvenated pitching staff, and stronger team chemsitry seemed to be working for them. They held the division lead most of the summer, but inexcusably allowed the Twins to catch them during an abysmal September and eventually beat them in a one-game playoff for the division. What appeared to be a step in the right direction ended up being another season ending with some big question marks for the Tigers.
This offseason they’ll need to add some pieces for what is likely to be one last postseason run under Jim Leyland. The biggest issue will be finding some protection for Miguel Cabrera in the lineup. Cabrera was, at times, the only productive hitter in the lineup for spans of games. The team emphasized defense, and at the risk of doing so, lost some firepower from their lineup. They’ll need to improve their offensive output at catcher, shortstop, and designated hitter. They also will need to address what to do with the albatross contracts of Carlos Guillen, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, and Dontrelle Willis. Additionally, they’ve found some good young pitchers to anchor the rotation, but the back-end will need some veteran help. They have a lot of good, young arms still on the mend who will likely spend most of 2010 rediscovering their talents. If all goes well, they could have an excess of arms in the bullpen, but they’ll still need to figure out the back-end of the bullpen. Fernando Rodney is a free agent and they will likely need to find a new set-up man with Brandon Lyon also hitting free agency.
If I was Tigers’ GM Dave Dombrowski, here are the moves I would make this offseason…
The 2010 Detroit Tigers Fantasy GM
1) Sign DH Vladimir Guerrero
Guerrero has definitely regressed at the plate. The question is how much of that is due to the toll playing right field has taken on his body. Vlad had been adamant in recent years to still see time in the field and the Angels begrudgingly acquiesced. However, after Vlad’s latest set of injuries this season – a strained left knee and a chest injury – ended his bid to play defense. He got the rest and rehabilitation he desperately needed during the summer last season and came back with a vengeance (not coincedentally, without playing an inning of defense). He still has a great arm in right field, the problem is that his arm is attached to the rest of his body. And that body is no longer capable of handling anything more than being a full-time DH. However, I think if he’s a full-time DH next season, he is still capable of emulating his 2008 campaign (.303/27/91) if not more – which is far better than the Tigers got from the DH spot last season. It’s a risky proposition, but with so much dead weight coming off the books next season for the Tigers, I’d give him a 2-year, $28 million deal to serve as the full-time DH and give Miguel Cabrera the protection he so desperately needs.
2) Sign SS Miguel Tejada
The signing of Adam Everett last season to boost the infield defense was a good move in theory, but his impotent bat essentially turned the Tigers’ lineup into an 8-man lineup when he was inserted in as a starter. Tejada is a very inconsistent defender at shortstop, coming off an egregious year defensively. He’s a bit sloppy and slow as a fielder, but he’s maintained a respectable range factor. He’s prone to errors, but his defense could look much better next to a defensive whiz like Brandon Inge at 3B. You have to take the good with the bad here – with inconsistent defense comes a great bat. Tejada’s power has clearly declined (you can speculate as to why), but for whatever the reason, he’s recognized this and has compensated for it by becoming a more cerebral contact hitter. He’s seeing the ball tremendously well in recent seasons, hits for average, and has cut down on his strikeout totals. He’s capable of hitting in the two-spot, but with his speed a liability, he’s best served in the #5 or #6 spot, where he can continue to lace doubles (46 in 2009) in a spacious Comerica outfield after the big bats get on base. I’d give Tejada a 3-year, $35 million deal, with the possibility of him moving to 3B after Inge becomes a free agent next season.
3) Resign 2B Placido Polanco
The Tigers have a prized-prospect in 24-year old Scott Sizemore, who hit well over .300 with 16 HRs and 21 SB between AA and AAA in 2009 and is currently hitting well in the AFL. He’s probably ready for an everyday job at 2B from an offensive prospective. His defense isn’t a liability, but given the make-up of this team, the Tigers are probably best suited with one more season of Placido Polanco’s stellar, reliable defense at second base for a team in win-now mode. Polanco had a typical season: great defense (possibly his best defensive season ever, committing only 2 errors in the field), and despite not hitting .300 (skewed by a cold April/May), he kept his strikeouts down, put the ball in play, added a few homers and steals, and was a solid doubles and singles hitter. I’d re-up Polanco for a one-year deal that tops the money Orlando Hudson got or will get and give him roughly $6 million (a significant raise).
4) Sign C Jason Varitek
The Red Sox have a $5 million club option and Varitek holds a $3 million player option. It doesn’t make much sense for the Red Sox to pay Varitek $5 million when they’ll have Victor Martinez firmly entrenched as their catcher, and it doesn’t make much sense for Varitek to take $3 million to be a back-up when he still wants to be a starter. As such, I see Varitek hitting the free agency market this offseason. He’d be a great fit for a gritty Detroit team, as a Michigan native, where he could start (but split time) with Gerald Laird. Laird is a good game manager and solid defensively, but his bat was useless in 2009. Varitek isn’t the hitter he once was (.209 AVG in 2009, .220 AVG in 2008), but he’s still got some pop in his bat and can still surprise a pitcher in a clutch at-bat. He’s still a great game manager, even if his defense has deteriorated. Regardless, he’s an upgrade to Laird, and a timeshare between him and Laird would keep both fresh and improve the overall production from the catcher spot. I’d give Varitek a one-year, $5 million deal.
5) Trade 1B/OF Carlos Guillen, cash to Phillies for SP Jamie Moyer
Guillen has become one of the most fragile position players in baseball and it has taken a toll on his offensive potential. He has still shown flashes of brilliance with the bat, but what was expected to be a bounce-back season for Guillen in 2009 at the plate fell flat after the injuries accumulated. He still has some pop and could be a very valuable switch-hitter off the bench, but it doesn’t appear as if his body can take the rigors of playing everyday. Unfortunately, the Tigers owe him $26 million over the next two seasons. If they can’t find a trading partner, they could pull another Sheffield and just cut him loose in the offseason. However, Guillen is much younger than Sheffield, can switch-hit, and could feasibly still hit for some average and power in the right situation. Philadelphia could be the right situation for him where he would fill in at 1B, 3B, and the outfield on an as-needed basis in a hitter’s park. The Phillies already have too many lefties in the rotation and bullpen and could afford to move the 46-year old Jamie Moyer. The Tigers could use a back-end veteran lefty starter, and Moyer is still a serviceable option (4.94 ERA in 2009). The swap could happen, but the Tigers would likely have to eat about $8 million of Guillen’s remaining $26 million and take on the full amount of Moyer’s $6.5 million contract in 2009. The move would clear a spot on the bench for the Tigers for a more versatile player, save some money, and fill a back-end rotational void while the Phillies would get the power-hitting veteran utility hitter they’ve been looking for while freeing up a bullpen spot for one of their younger arms.
6) Sign SP Doug Davis
With the young, potential-laden arms of Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, and Rick Porcello, and Jamie Moyer filling out the last spot as a crafty lefty, Davis is the perfect fit as a middle-of-the-rotation transitional lefty veteran. Davis is an unspectacular pitcher, but he’s become one of the most reliable. He’s a solid innings-eater who may be hittable, but knows how to work his way out of jams and keep the ball in the park. He’s made at least 33 starts in five of the last six seasons and has maintained a sub-4.50 ERA in each of the last three years. He’s a good clubhouse guy and he’ll take the stress off the younger pitchers and bullpens with a durable arm. I’d give him 2 years, $14 million to be the #3 starter.
7) Resign RP Fernando Rodney & Sign RP LaTroy Hawkins
I’m torn as to whether or not Rodney should be a full-time closer in this league. He’s not as good as his save numbers this season indicate – 37 saves in 38 chances – which his 4.40 ERA can attest to. He has the stuff to close, but his control is shaky, his mentality is questionable, and he’s subject to the occasional implosion. With the game on the line and the pressure on, you can only have so much confidence in Rodney, as we saw in the one-game playoff against the Twins. He’s probably best suited as a set-up man, but the closer pool is fairly shallow in 2009. All told, he is capable of being a middle-of-the-pack ninth-inning man, but there isn’t much more upside here at age 32. Given his history with the organization and an assurance to be the go-to guy for saves, you can probably get him back on a hometown discount. I’d give him 3 years, $10 million. However, in addition, I’d add LaTroy Hawkins, not only as the primary set-up man, but a situational closer, when the ninth inning features a lefty-heavy opposing lineup, or should Rodney struggle. Essentially, I’d make Rodney 1a and Hawkins 1b in save opportunities, and I’d give Hawkins 2 years, $8 million to fill the set-up role.
8) Sign OF Rick Ankiel; platoon him in LF with Ryan Raburn
Ankiel struggled – not surprisingly – to hit for contact in 2009 and his days in St. Louis are likely over. Ankiel is still a solid, versatile outfield defender with a plus arm, who has untapped power, and can mash off lefties. He’s never going to be a great contact hitter, but in a platoon where he can primarily face lefties, he should be able to post an above-average slugging percentage. Against righties last year, he hit .234/0/8 in 94 at-bats. Clearly, he needs to be platooned and Raburn, a righty, is the perfect complement in left field. Raburn probably has the bat to start everyday, as evidenced by his .291 AVG last season, but he’s the type of guy who is much more valuable in a super-utility role than playing one position everyday. Raburn is an adequate or better defender at every position but catcher, can give you speed or power off the bench, and is a modest pinch-hitter. He’s the type of all-around guy who makes for an extremely valuable role player. Platooning him in left field will get him consistent at-bats and allow him to fill the utility role when he’s not in the lineup. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s more effective against right-handed pitching, as expected.
9) Have an open competition for the long relief/spot starter spot
The Tigers have two high-priced former top starters that are rehabbing from injuries in Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis, whose contracts make them immovable. It doesn’t appear as if either currently has the arm to move back into the rotation. All you can do is hope for the best and allow them to compete for a mop-up job and go from there. It’s possible Bonderman could thrive if his workload is drastically reduced (after being overworked for years and suffering an unfortunate thoraic issue), but his long-term durability and health is a serious concern. Willis has become a head-case who has apparently lost any control he had over his pitches; he could be toyed with in the minors as a hitter. Either way, neither should be entrusted with much at this point. Additionally, the Tigers still have perennial long-man Zach Miner, who was typically mediocre in the role. They also have Armando Galarraga, who thrived as a rookie in 2008, but came back to earth in 2009, struggling mightily with his consistency. Hitters caught up with him last season, but he still is young enough to rediscover his talent. He’s probably not as good as his 2008 numbers or as bad as his 2009 numbers – he’s somewhere in between – but he’s not ready to return to the rotation immediately in 2010, so he’ll either work out the kinks in the minors or fill in as a long reliever. They also have soft throwing lefty Nate Robertson under an immovable contract, who could either compete for this spot or be moved into a more lefty-specialist, short-relief role.
10) Sign RP Eddy Guardado
Guardado is a crafty, experienced arm who would complement Bobby Seay with another lefty arm in the bullpen and a potential save vulture if all else fails. I’d give him a 1-year deal worth $500K.
11) Keep an eye on next offseason
The Tiger fanbase has grown impatient with the team and this late season meltdown should fuel their ire. The Tigers can’t afford to be complacement, but they also can’t focus too much on the short-term. The Tigers have the foundation to be competitive again in 2010, they just need some veteran additions to re-establish themselves as the AL Central favorites. Next offseason, Bonderman, Willis, and Robertson’s atrocious salaries will come off the books. The three alone will clear $34.5 million off the books. Additionally, if they were to trade for Moyer, his $6.5 million would come off the books, along with the one year deals of Polanco and Varitek (an additional $11 million). Magglio Ordonez has another $15 million vesting option for 2011 (with no buy-out) that the Tigers will avoid like the plague from being guaranteed by preventing him from reaching 135 starts or 540 plate appearances. Inge’s contract, which will pay him $6.6 million in 2010, will also come to an end at the end of next season. All told, the Tigers could free themselves of upwards of $75 million in payroll next offseason. Knowing this, the Tigers can spend a bit more than they normally would this season and spend next offseason negotiating long-term deals with Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson before they’re no longer arbitration-eligible.
As a result, this is the roster I’d field for 2010 if I was the Tigers’ GM…
The 2010 Detroit Tigers
Starting Lineup:
1. Curtis Granderson, CF
2. Placido Polanco, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Vladimir Guerrero, DH
5. Miguel Tejada, SS
6. Magglio Ordonez, RF
7. Brandon Inge, 3B
8. Jason Varitek, C
9. Rick Ankiel, LF*
Bench:
Gerald Laird (C)
Ramon Santiago (IF)
Marcus Thames (1B/OF)
Ryan Raburn (IF/OF)*
*platoon in LF
Starting Rotation:
1. Justin Verlander
2. Edwin Jackson
3. Doug Davis
4. Rick Porcello
5. Jamie Moyer
Bullpen:
Fernando Rodney (closer)
LaTroy Hawkins (set-up man)
Bobby Seay
Ryan Perry
Eddy Guardado
Joel Zumaya
Zach Miner
