2010 Fantasy GM: New York Mets
Last season, I attempted to play “fantasy GM” for all thirty teams. Admittedly, I only got through about half the league, but I still thought it was a worthy series of articles and, as a result, I intend on doing it again this season. Rather than attempt to re-explain the set-up, purpose, and nuances of the ensuing series of articles entitled “fantasy GM,” it’s much easier if I re-post last year’s description with some minor tweaks to it. As I stated last year:
In one a few series of articles I plan on running with this baseball offseason, “Fantasy GM” is the one I may enjoy the most. Its direct value to fantasy baseball is minimal, but this is just one of the many ways I plan to expand the horizons of this blog to go beyond fantasy baseball and into other areas of the game that allow for interactivity. My intentions are to play “fantasy GM” for all 30 teams this offseason, in which I will assume the general manager position of each franchise and, acting in the what I consider the best interest of the team, make the necessary transactions to improve the team. Of course, this also is done with a strong sense of reality. It’s in the best interest of the Royals to give Matt Holliday a 7-year, $100 million contract, but we all know they couldn’t possibly afford to do so nor would they. It’s a combination of what I think they should do with what I think they’ll actually do.
I will also attempt to include any moves that a team has already made this offseason (there haven’t been many, so this won’t be a major issue, but it’s worth noting). Also, I am starting with the teams I think will make the biggest impact and working my way down. All of the moves made by one team will overlap with another team. For instance if I have the Red Sox pick up Victor Martinez’s 2010 option, then I will not have another team sign him when I’m playing a different fantasy GM. Basically, it’s a combination of reality and fantasy. It’s as if I could control the moves for every franchise this offseason. Like I said, there isn’t much fantasy impact, but I think it’s interactive and entertaining and makes for some good arguments and discussions.
That about sums it up. So, without further adieu, let’s start with the team who should and needs to make the biggest offseason splash this winter; the same team who kicked things off last season…
The 2010 New York Mets Fantasy GM
The horrific 2009 season that was for the New York Mets came about due to a number of factors, some of which went beyond the control of management. Countless injuries devastated the lineup and the rotation and the new stadium seemed to create problems in both the field and at the plate for a number of position players. The Mets appeared to do some things right last offseason, like doling the money to land Francisco Rodriguez as their closer, pulling off what many thought to be a savvy trade to acquire J.J. Putz as their set-up man, re-signing inconsistently brilliant Oliver Perez, picking up Carlos Delgado’s option, and giving manager Jerry Manuel an extension. Unfortunately, almost every move the Mets last offseason backfired on them. The combination of ill-fated contracts, injuries, slopiness, and downright bad luck cursed the Mets in 2009 and thus, this will be another huge offseason for them. What the Mets really need to do is clean house and rebuild with a bottom-up approach. However, we all know there are no rebuilding seasons in New York. In the New York City market, every season is a win-now season and 2010 is no exception for the Mets. If Omar Minaya wants to keep his job beyond next season, he’ll need to shake things up and turn this franchise back into a contender over the next few months, and if I was Minaya this is how I’d do it…
1) Fire Jerry Manuel; sign Rudy Jaramillo as manager
Manuel earned the job with a strong finish in 2008 and, in my opinion, he lost it with a sloppy 2009 season in which he often looked bewildered and lost as a manager. The Mets were arguably the sloppiest team in baseball last season and you can put the blame on some of the players, but ultimately it falls on the manager. The team was clearly deficient in fundamentals, as was evident by atrocious base running, terrible defense, and egregious mental errors on a nightly basis. You can chalk it up to injuries or adjusting to the new stadium, but Manuel has to take some of the blame. This team was downright embarrassing to watch at times and that’s just unacceptable when you’re handed a $150 million payroll. He mismanaged the bullpen and the bench and clashed with his own players on more than one occasion. The team lacked chemistry and Manuel did a poor job of damage control in the media. Whatever magic he had in 2008 with the team rapidly dissipated in 2009. If this team is going to re-emerge as a contender, a major shake up is needed in the clubhouse and it starts by bringing in a new manager to lead the team.
I don’t think there’s a better fit out there for the Mets than the recently unemployed Rudy Jaramillo, who spent more than a decade developing some of the best hitters in baseball as the Texas Rangers hitting coach. Jaramillo was the runner-up to Willie Randolph in 2005 and the organization has been smitten with him in the past. His resume as a hitting coach is in impeccable. The players he’s helped hone and develop reads like an all-star lineup, including names such as Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Hank Blalock, Mark Teixeira, Juan Gonzalez, and Jeff Bagwell. After the Mets put out such a punchless lineup night after night this season, Jaramillo is the type of presence they need to revive the offense. The Rangers lineup regressed a bit last season and Jaramillo doesn’t have much of a small-ball mentality, but if they add a few of the big-name power hitters they are reportedly pursuing, he could turn things around quickly. His experience and demeanor favorably projects with the current Mets clubhouse and he’s a venerable name in baseball circles. He doesn’t have any managerial experience, but he’s certainly earned a shot to take the reigns of a major-league club. He could bring the best out of the lineup, including right-fielder Jeff Franceour, with whom he was worked privately in the past. There are a number of connections he has to team already and his hiring would make for a smooth transition in the Mets’ quest to return to respectability.
2) Trade 3B David Wright & 2B Luis Castillo to Brewers for 1B Prince Fielder
In addition to shaking things up in the clubhouse, the Mets must make a splash on the field to show they’re taking this franchise in a new direction. This trade will make a major impact on the lineup and would give the Mets the bona fide cleanup hitter they have lacked. Let me make this explicitly clear, however: David Wright is not the problem. That said, Wright seems to have struggled when the pressure is on him and though he’s handled the media well, it seems as if he’s the type of player who would thrive better in a more low-key environment (such as Milwaukee). Wright’s glove and versatility is almost irreplaceable, but his inability to hit in clutch situations and his power struggles in the new stadium raise some serious concerns. In a blatantly-favorable pitcher’s park, such as Citi Field (even more than Shea was), Wright is not going to crank out 30 homers. He doesn’t have that type of power. His 5 HRs in 277 home at-bats attest to this. The Mets would capitalize much more on Fielder’s potential than Wright’s, given the circumstances.
Fielder and the Brewers have already gone back-and-forth with contract disputes and though he’s locked up for $10.5 million for 2010, he’ll hit free agency after next season and the Brewers realize they probably have little-to-no chance of retaining his skills beyond that. It makes sense to move him now. His trade value is through the roof. He’s coming off a .299/46/141 2009 campaign at age 25 and, though whoever acquires him will obviously need to work out a long-term deal, right now there’s minimal commitment. He’s shown himself to be a true workhorse who rarely misses a game and may be one of the strongest hitters in the game. Not even the cavernous Citi Field will be able to keep Fielder’s bat in check.
Obviously, right now, Fielder’s value – given last season and his contract – is superior to Wright’s. As a result, I’ve included Luis Castillo in the deal, who was arguably the team’s MVP last season. Castillo’s contract isn’t looking so bad anymore, but it would allow the Mets to clear up a few million to use towards free agency. Meanwhile, the Brewers would get another player to reunite with bench coach Willie Randolph and get themselves a viable second baseman and top-of-the-lineup hitter. Rickie Weeks sorely needs a move to the outfield and this would facilitate the process. For the Mets, Castillo is replaceable. He had a nice season in 2009, but it’s hard to anticipate as strong of a follow-up in 2010.
3) Sign LF Jason Bay
This signing would complete the transformation from a punchless, scrappy lineup to one that pitchers will actually fear. Like Fielder, Bay is a big, strong, powerful bat coming off an impressive 2009 campaign. He’s a clubhouse leader and a reliable talent. His contact hitting has regressed slightly in recent years, but he’s still a respectable .280 lifetime hitter and just posted career highs in home runs and RBIs. At age 31, he’s still in the midst of his prime and would be the perfect right-handed bat to protect Fielder in this lineup. The Mets oversaw Bay’s development in their minor league system almost a decade ago and know what he can bring to the lineup. His defense is adequate at best, but with a healthy Carlos Beltran roaming in centerfield in 2010, it’s a manageable defect. He isn’t the contact hitter David Wright is, but he can give you a production line similar to that of Wright before the move to Citi Field. He’s a versatile, savvy hitter with a big bat and he does well with the pressure on. His addition would fill a major void in both LF and the heart of the lineup. If I were the Mets, I’d give him a 5-year, $80 million deal.
3) Trade OF Fernando Martinez & SP John Maine to Indians for 3B Jhonny Peralta, SP Jake Westbrook, SP Fausto Carmona, and RP Chris Perez
Both the Mets and the Indians need to rebuild after extremely disappointing 2009 campaigns. The Indians can afford to rebuild, the Mets can afford to take on veteran contracts and go back into win-now mode in 2010. The two make for great trading partners. The Mets have been extremely resistant to dealing Fernando Martinez, an uberstar in a disappointing farm system, but if they want to add some veteran pieces to return to contenders in 2010, they’ll need to part with the few trading pieces they have in the minors. Martinez, like most Mets prospects (cough, Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, cough) is valued much higher by the Mets than other organizations. Martinez wasn’t ready for his cup of coffee in the majors this season, but I still don’t see him projecting as a superstar. He hasn’t blown pitchers away with his talent and the Mets should maximize their ability to trade him while he’s still viewed based on potential and not actual results. The Indians have coveted him for awhile and they have the pieces to acquire him. Similarly to Wright, John Maine has seemingly fallen out of favor in New York and a change of scenery to a mid-market team with less pressure could suit him well.
Jhonny Peralta is a solid 3B with some pop and someone who has been outspoken about the Indians’ inability to keep superstars. His rift with the organization will likely spell the end of his career with the Indians. He’s a good bottom-of-the-lineup power hitter to man the hot corner and should mesh well with the Mets clubhouse. Fausto Carmona was a dominant pitcher two seasons ago but lost control of his command and has since imploded. He was sent down to the minors to work out the kinks in his delivery last season and finished well with a couple of strong starts, but a change of scenery appears to be necessary. He’s the type of guy the Mets could uncover as a gem with the right amount of work, and given the Mets history with injured pitchers, he’d provide great depth for the rotation or as a long-reliever out of the bullpen. Meanwhile, Chris Perez is another intriguing young arm, who would fit well in a middle relief role with the potential to one day be a powerful set-up man. Westbrook is the wildcard. He missed all of last season, but should be healthy for spring training next year. He’s in a contract year and if he wants more than a minor-league deal next offseason, he needs to show he can return to his #3 starter/workhorse status. If he’s healthy, he could be a great veteran addition to the back-end of the rotation.
4) Sign SP Rich Harden
Yes, I know. The Mets have enough problems with pitching injuries without having to sign arguably the most fragile starter in baseball. However, let’s be honest. The starting pitching market this offseason is relatively uninspiring. If the Mets don’t want to dole out millions upon millions on a potential fluke like Joel Pineiro, they’ll have to take some risks. The Mets don’t have much payroll coming off the books in 2010 and with them already paying big bucks to Bay and negotiating a long-term deal with Fielder, they’ll have to find cheap alternatives in the rotation. No one in their right mind (relax, Bill Bavasi was fired) would give Harden a multi-year deal. As a result, the highest bidder on a one-year deal will likely win the rights to him. Harden’s injury history is an automatic red flag, but his 51 starts over the last two seasons is very encouraging. He’ll never be a 200 IP pitcher, but he’s shown himself to be fairly reliable for 6 innings every five days for the last two years. The brightside is he has ace potential and may be an even better strikeout pitcher than Johan Santana. The downside is that he was both healthy and mediocre last season. Usually, he’s dominant during his flashes of good health, but last year his 4.09 ERA and 23 HRA in 141 innings was surprisingly disappointing. Nevertheless, the upside is there. A lot went wrong with the Cubs in 2009 and like the Mets other suggested acquisitions, he’s another guy who looks to be in need of a change of scenery. I’d give him one-year, $8 million to be the #2 starter. The Mets sorely need another dominant pitcher to bridge the gap between Santana and the back-end of the rotation, and if healthy, which he has shown he can be for 25 or so starts, Harden would be an ideal candidate.
5) Trade minor-league RPs Eddie Kunz & Arturo Lopez and OF Jeremy Reed to Reds for SP Bronso Arroyo
The Reds owe Arroyo $11 million for the upcoming season and hold a $11 million option for the 2011 season. His demographic really doesn’t fit this young team and the Reds could far better spend $11 million than on a 32-year old #3 starting pitcher. The Reds still appear to be a year or two from being legitimate contenders and this is their best chance to capitalize on maximizing Arroyo’s value after a 15-win, 3.84 ERA campaign. Arroyo is not that good of a pitcher, but he’s durable, reliable, and a pitcher who is usually done in by the long ball, he’d be a solid fit for the Mets in pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Arroyo is what he is and give or take a few ugly performances, you know what you’re getting with him. He’s an ideal #3 starter for a contender and would make the transition from the frontline starters to the back-end starters very smooth while taking some pressure off the bullpen. Kunz was a pretty highly regarded piece for the Mets in 2008, but struggled at AAA last season. He’s still viewed, however, as a potential closer in the mold of a J.J. Putz and the Reds could use a good, young arm to shore up their bullpen.
6) Trade 1B/OF Daniel Murphy to A’s for Michael Wuertz
The Mets had high hopes for Murphy, but he failed to live up to them both in the field and at the plate. He salvaged his season by flashing a pretty good glove at 1B after a disastrous showing in LF and hitting noticeably better in the second half, but where he fits in the Mets long-term plans is murky. He doesn’t have the bat to play everyday for the Mets at 1B and doesn’t really have the versatility to be useful as a utility player. To me, he evokes images of Ross Gload, albeit a superior version. However, I don’t think he’s going to be the player many thought he would be going into this season. He’d make for a great fit in Oakland, where he could potentially start at 1B and where his walk-to-strikeout ratio is a perfect match for Billy Beane’s moneyball. Meanwhile, Wuertz would give the Mets a reliable set-up man. The A’s have plenty of good, young depth in the bullpen making Wuertz expendable after a career year. Wuertz is not a one-trick pony. He’s always been an above-average arm, but was under-utilized by the Cubs. The A’s gave him much more responsibility and consistent innings and he finally got his chance to impress. At age 30, he had a breakout year with 102 Ks and a 2.63 ERA in 74 appearances. He relies on his slider, which is one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball, but mixes in fastballs and off-speed junk. He could one day find himself closing, but for now he’d give the Mets the dominant set-up man they thought they had in J.J. Putz.
7) Decline option on RP J.J. Putz; sign RP Kiko Calero
There’s absolutely no chance the Mets will pick up Putz’s $8.6 million option for 2010 and instead will buy him out for $1 million, thus likely spelling the end of Putz’s disappointing tenure with the franchise. If healthy, he’ll probably get a shot to re-establish himself as a closer for a mid-market team, but there’s no point in the Mets keeping him around. Signing Calero would give them another serviceable late-inning option. Like Wuertz, he was underappreciated early in his career, but has really hit a stride in his thirties. Now 34, Calero has low mileage on his arm but has a solid resume, which includes a 3.24 lifetime ERA and 324 strikeouts in 302 career IP. He had a career year last season with a 1.95 ERA and .180 BAA, but the stingy Marlins are unlikely to resign him, making him a great fit for the Mets.
8) Sign 2B Orlando Hudson
A lot of people wanted this signing to happen a year ago, and though it’s hard to argue with the price tag (the Dodgers gave him a one-year, $3.38 million deal), it turned out to be for the best that the Mets didn’t sign him then. They got a great year out of Luis Castillo this season and while Hudson put up a typical Hudson year with a .283/9/62/8 line and superior defense, he’s lost his starting job in the playoffs to Ronnie Belliard. As a result, it’s foreseeable that he’ll be looking for a new team this offseason. A player known for his fundamentals, strong defensive skills, and clubhouse leadership, he’d give the Mets the type of player (and presence) they’ve sorely lacked. He’d be a great mentor for young hitters like Fielder and Reyes and would give the Mets an infield leader. The Mets should be able to get him at around the same price the Dodgers did last season. I’d offer up a 1-year, $4 million deal.
9) Trade SP Oliver Perez, low-level minor league hitter, & cash to Royals for C Miguel Olivo
The Royals have a mutual option with Olivo for $3.25 million for 2010. They’ll likely pick it up. However, they still have John Buck and oversaw the development of Brayan Pena behind the plate, which makes Olivo fairly expendable. When you’re on a budget as tight as the Royals, you have to strongly consider paying Olivo $3.25 million to do about the same thing Pena can do for a fraction of the price. Of course, keeping this in mind, if the Mets are to swap Oliver Perez from him, they’ll have to eat almost all of Perez’s contract. The Mets owe Perez $12 million for each of the next two seasons. They’ll have to take on at least $8 million for the next two seasons to make the deal work. Perez was absymal last season, but as a lefty who can strikeout a batter per inning and can be brilliant at times, he’ll always have suitors, and the Royals have sorely lacked a lefty in the rotation. He’s worth the risk at the right cost. Olivo is an all-around average catcher. His best asset is his power. He’s adequate, not great behind the plate, and wouldn’t draw a walk on four straight wild pitches (40 total walks over last 3 seasons), but he’s in his prime at 31 and has shown the ability to be a reliable starter. There’s not much else out there. Free agents include Ivan Rodriguez, Ramon Hernandez, and Jason Kendall. They had to go through Schneider breaking down last season, they won’t want to do it again with one of those options. Olivo, at the very least, is an upgrade at the position.
10) Re-sign INF Alex Cora & IF/OF Fernando Tatis
Two of the few bright spots of the 2009 season for the Mets were these two veteran utility players. Tatis followed up a shocking comeback season in 2008 with another impressive campaign in 2009. He’s probably going to continue to regress, but he’s still a solid right-handed bat off the bench who can still drive the ball and is a good situational pinch hitter. He’s also shown to be defensively adept at 1B, 3B, RF, and LF. He’s earned another year with the team. Cora doesn’t do anything great, but he’s a smart, solid bench player who gives them experience and versatility up the middle. His defense is usually spot-on, though he did struggle a bit in the field last season. However, he’s got a good eye at the plate and is an ideal middle infielder back-up. I’d resign him for one-year, $1 million. Bringing both Tatis and Cora would solidify the bench.
11) Sign 1B/3B Chad Tracy
The Diamondbacks will decline their option on the fragile Tracy this offseason and he’d give the Mets a cheap, left-handed power bat off the bench. He’s got a bad back, but he’s still got his power and has a solid all-around skill set at the plate. He’s a poor-man’s Josh Willingham essentially, who showed that he could thrive in a similar role to what the Mets would employ Tracy in. Tracy doesn’t offer much in terms of fielding, but would be good for left-handed matchups in late innings. The Mets should be able to bring him in for 1-year, $750,000.
12) Do not resign 1B Carlos Delgado; hope for the best with health of SS Jose Reyes and CF Carlos Beltran
The Mets had to pick up Delgado’s option last offseason, simply based on economics. Everyone knew it would be a risky proposition and the risk ended up not paying off. Delgado’s presence in the clubhouse has been controversial and outside of an anomaly of a half-season in 2008, his bat has not lived up to his salary. Delgado, while still a capable hitter when healthy (he needs to go to the AL where he can DH at least part-time), personifies the disappointment and failure of the Mets over the last three seasons better than anyone. His departure further symbolizes the change in direction of the franchise. Many have called for the trades of Reyes and Beltran, and it’s easy to understand why, given their salaries and injuries last season, but these two are cornerstone players, and trading them for inferior talent to free salary won’t solve the problem. Both will have plenty of time to rehab and return to prominence in 2010.
As a result, if I were in Omar Minaya’s shoes this offseason, this is the roster I would assemble for 2010:
The New York Mets 2010 Roster
Lineup:
1. Jose Reyes, SS
2. Orlando Hudson, 2B
3. Carlos Beltran, CF
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Jason Bay, LF
6. Jeff Francoeur, RF
7. Jhonny Peralta, 3B
8. Miguel Olivo, C
9. Pitcher
Bench:
Omir Santos (C)
Alex Cora (2B/SS)
Chad Tracy (1B/3B)
Fernando Tatis (1B/3B/OF)
Angel Pagan (OF)
Starting Rotation:
1. Johan Santana
2. Rich Harden
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Mike Pelfrey
5. Jake Westbrook
Bullpen:
Francisco Rodriguez (Closer)
Michael Wuertz (Set-up man)
Kiko Calero
Pedro Feliciano
Sean Green
Chris Perez
Fausto Carmona
Analysis: The Mets once again need a major overhaul and these moves would undoubtedly provide that. The biggest issues are addressed, including increasing the potency of the heart of the lineup. A healthy Beltran, along with Fielder and Bay, would drastically improve the 3-4-5 hole in the lineup. The additions of Hudson and Olivo would also strengthen the periphery of the lineup. As a result, the Mets would be looking at a much stronger lineup than the one they relied on in 2009 and one that would no longer be a liability. The additions of Harden and Arroyo would also give the Mets a much needed bridge from Santana to the back of the rotation, rather than masquerading the likes of Mike Pelfrey and John Maine as #2 starters, while allowing the Mets to continue to develop Johnathan Niese and Bobby Parnell as starters in AAA. Finally, the bullpen, which made strides in 2009, should continue to do so in 2010 by acquiring two solid veteran arms in Wuertz and Calero. Overall, the Mets would get their much needed facelift, with a new manager, an improved lineup, and a re-strengthening of their pitching staff. With better luck, less injuries, superior talent, and a team much better suited for their new stadium in 2010, they would be ready to return to viable contender status.
