Fantasy GM: Philadelphia Phillies
The Mets appeared to be the clear-cut front runners to win the National League East in 2008, but the Phillies persevered yet again, en route to winning their second straight divisional crown. The Phillies, by most accounts, had an underwhelmind offseason. They considered replacing manager Charlie Manuel after a disappointing NLDS loss, but ultimately kept the retread around for another season. They squabbled with Ryan Howard in arbitration rather than going out and adding another power bat or making a run at A-Rod. They also didn’t address their starting pitching issues. Nevertheless, their lineup was still one of the most potent in baseball, even with MVP Jimmy Rollins hurt for a portion of the year, and the rotation, led by Cole Hamels, turned in a suprisingly solid season. Hamels, Brett Myers, mid-season acquisition Joe Blanton, and the timeless Jamie Moyer gave them four very good starters down the stretch and combined with an above-average bullpen led by Brad Lidge, who didn’t blow a save all year, was enough for another trip to the playoffs.
They’ve already advanced to this year’s NLCS, but despite the marked improvement, they will have more questions to answer this offseason than last. OF Pat Burrell and SP Jamie Moyer are free agents, 1B Ryan Howard is again arbitration-eligible and the franchise will need to negotiate a long-term contract with him this offseason, and they need to figure what to do with SP Adam Eaton’s albatross of a contract, upgrades needed at 3B and C, and arbitration-eligible players like Howard, Hamels, Durbin, Victorino, and Werth. They only have Burrell to resign but will be doling out a lot of money to their younger players to keep their core intact.
If I’m the Phillies’ GM this offseason, these are the moves I would make…
The 2009 Philadelphia Phillies Fantasy GM
1) Negotiate a long-term deal with 1B Ryan Howard
The Phillies squabbled with Howard in arbitration last offseason before settling on a one-year, $10 million deal. After Jimmy Rollins up-and-down year and Chase Utley’s second-half cool down following his red-hot start, it’s become apparent that Howard is the centerpiece of this offense. Howard has unmitigated and unparallel power and could be well on his way to his 2nd NL MVP Award in the last three years. He’s homering at an extraordinary rate and should annually lead the league in that category, he’s a great hitter with runners in scoring position, can carry an offense, and even had a pretty solid year in the field. He’s a clean-cut guy and is the type of player you build a franchise around and locking him up needs to be the Phillies priority. That said, he’s going to be 29 years old next month and he has old-player skills, which means he could hit a Hafner-esque wall down the road, and who knows how long his defense will hold up. He’s already a perennial leader in strikeouts and his average has dropped significantly from .313 in 2006, .268 in 2007, and .251 this season. I’d want to lock him up, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable giving him more than 5 or 6 years of guaranteed money. Of course, this is probably his one chance at landing a prime contract at 29 already, so if you’re only giving him five years, it’s going to have to be a very enticing offer. I’d start by offering 5-years, $100 million. $20 million per season is a lot, but it’s reasonable when you’re dealing with a lefty power bat who has been a perennial MVP candidate since becoming the full-time starter. If he wants more, I’d try extending it a 6-year deal, but would be very weary about going longer than that.
2) Resign LF Pat Burrell
The Phillies will get $20 million off the book from this season when you account for Howard’s $10 million last year and the $10 million they owed Jim Thome and Wes Helms, so Howard’s new contract puts them back at square one. They’re already giving Brad Lidge a $3 million raise this season, will have to give Jamie Moyer a pay increase, and will see their team salary bloated by the countless arbitration cases they face. If they can still afford Burrell, which is feasible, since they appear on the precipice of becoming a big-market team, I’d resign him. He’s replaceable, but with Jayson Werth still developing at the plate, he’s the team’s lone power-hitting righty. He gives Howard protection, which is key, and he has 30-40 HR power and plays a modest LF. He’s become entrenched in the franchise and losing him could hurt without any internal options ready to fill his shoes. Keeping Burrell around preserves a lethal 1-5 top of the order. He got 6 years, $50 million last time he was a free agent. The market has changed since then, but Burrell is six years older at age 32 and isn’t coming off the .282-37-116 season he had in 2002. I’d offer him the same contract to stay put for another six years on a competitive franchise and hope for a hometown discount, which I think he’d accept.
3) Resign SP Jamie Moyer
After Hamels, Moyer was the Phillies’ most reliable and effective starter over the course of the season. He’ll be 46 next season, but with his offspeed junk and pinpoint location, he has thrived without much velocity and really exuded a great presence on the mound this season. He won 16 games with a 3.71 ERA and struck out 123 batters with a mix of baffling offspeed stuff and breaking balls. By the numbers, it was the third best season of his 23 year career and it would incredibly wishful thinking to expect a duplicate performance. Nevertheless, he can still be a savvy back-end starter and with a passive approach, can still be counted on for 180-200 innings. He’s earned a raise and even if you’ll slightly overpay for a statistical anomaly this season, it’ll be worth having his presence to fill out the rotation again next season, even if he only gives you league-average production. I’d give him a one-year, $5.5 million deal.
4) Decline options on OF So Taguchi, RP Tom Gordon
Gordon will be 41 next season and Taguchi will be 39. Both are savvy veterans, but both are past their prime, and while they were either hurt or struggling this season, they were passed up by better options. While Gordon was on the DL, the bullpen still excelled with Romero, Condrey, and Madson leading to Lidge, making him expendable. Also, Taguchi isn’t needed with Jenkins and Bruntlett both capable of backing up in the outfield. The Phillies would save a combined $5.6 million by buying out both their options this offseason and letting them become free agents, which is what I would do to free up some space and money.
5) Sign RPs Keith Foulke and Jason Isringhausen
Ryan Madson did a good job as “the bridge to Lidge” this season, but he has too good of an arsenal and too much endurance to be limited as a one-inning reliever in a set-up role. Madson has the arm to be successful in just about any role, but he would be more valuable in a J.P. Howell-type role where he could throw multiple innings in relief. He could be in the mix for a rotation spot, but after back-to-back seasons of 3.05 ERAs in relief and struggling in his last stint as a starter, they’ll probably want to keep him in the bullpen as a long reliever. As a result, you add two crafty veterans arms that will come cheap and have the experience and track records to be solid set-up men, if they can stay healthy. Signing Foulke and Isringhausen would be risky, but it wouldn’t cost much and they have the depth to absorb either one, should they struggle mightily. Foulke was pitching well before getting hurt last year, but rehabbed well and had all of 2007 off, so his arm should be well rested. Izzy completely lost his stuff last year and has some serious arm problems, but has all spring to work out the kinks and revive his career as a reliever. He’s probably no more than a good bullpen filler, but even if he can’t close anymore, he could still be somewhat effective if he makes the adjustments. I’d give them both one-year, $1 million deals depending on their health this offseason.
6) Sign C Ivan Rodriguez
Pudge’s career is on its very last legs and while he’s a shell of his former self, he still has a decent bat and isn’t a defensive liability. Take into account his experience, his game-managing skills, and veteran presence and he’d be a good fit for the team. Pitchers love Carlos Ruiz and his defense and poise behind the plate evoke memories of a younger Pudge, but the Phillies are bascially sending out a 7-man lineup when he starts. He struggled to hit above .200 all season long and had but 18 extra-base hits and 31 RBIs. He doesn’t strikeout much, which is a plus, but I don’t think any team can afford to play him everyday after a .219-4-31 season. He could improve with experience, but as he gets that experience, it would be nice to add a veteran like Pudge in a timeshare to complement him with a better hitting option. It also allows Chris Coste to serve as the emergency catcher and back-up at all the corner infield and outfield spots.
7) Sign 3B Joe Crede, platoon with Greg Dobbs at third base
After an unimpressive offensive campaign from Pedro Feliz, the Phillies should also be looking to upgrade at 3B. Crede is a serious and perennial injury risk, but even in 97 games last year, he had better numbers than Feliz’s full-season workload. If Crede doesn’t have to play everyday, he could stay healthy for most of a season and platooning him with Dobbs would help keep both part-time players fresh. Crede was absolutely dreadful against lefty pitching last year with a .122 AVG, but prior to 2007, always hit lefties better than righties. Crede would have to start against lefties and a good number of righties, while Dobbs would spell Crede at least once or twice a week to rest him against righty starters. I don’t know what Crede is expecting this offseason, but he shouldn’t get a multiyear deal. If I’m the Phillies, I’d offer him a one-year, $4 million incentive-laden deal with a big 2nd year team option, so he can prove himself able to stay healthy and earn a big contract next offseason. The move would also them to part ways with the disappointing Pedro Feliz.
8) Trade 3B Pedro Feliz to Padres for RP Clay Hensley
The Padres would take one Feliz’s remaining $4.5 million deal for this season, as they could desperately use veteran bats with pop, in exchange for starter-turned-reliever Hensley, who has grown out of favor. Henlsey can make for a decent spot starter and handy long reliever, but he’s more a filler pitcher, who can eat up garbage time innings. He’d probably have to fight for a roster spot, but it’s worth it to ship off the remaining year of Feliz’s contract to the power-hungry Padres.
9) Send SPs Adam Eaton & Kyle Kendrick to AAA; make SP J.A. Happ the #5 starter
Both Eaton and Kendrick had terribly disappointing campaigns and don’t leave a lot of promise for this season. Eaton was completely hittable in his starts and didn’t respond well to minor-league hitters upon being demoted. In 7 minor league starts, he was 0-5 with a 7.02 ERA. There’s no way anyone would take on a penny of that contract, so rather than pay him to not play, I’d send him back down and have him work out the kinks. Similar to Eaton, but younger and cheaper, Kendrick became entirely too hittable as well. Kendrick is a good ground ball pitcher and can get outs, but he walks too many batters for a guy without great stuff and needs to cut back on the long balls. Happ would give the Phillies three lefties in the rotation, which somewhere between perfect and overkill for their rotation. He pitched exceptionably well in AAA in 2008 and held his own in 4 starts and 4 relief appearance for the Phillies in the majors. He’s a good, power-pitching lefty with upside and should round out the rotation nicely.
10) Let RP Scott Eyre, 2B Tadahito Iguchi, & OF Matt Stairs go
All three veterans were nice midseason adds to bolster their playoff runs and Eyre, especially, was a key contributor. The Phillies already have Romero, though, as a lefty, and Eyre should be highly sought after. I think the Yankees will make a run at him, and there’s really no need to try and go dollar-for-dollar with them when you already have a great veteran lefty. Iguchi could come back on a minor league deal if he doesn’t land a contract. Stairs is a good power-hitting lefty, but he needs to be a DH and there’s simply no room for him on this team. That, and he is regressing rapidly and could be on the verge of retirement.
11) Swap SS JImmy Rollins and CF Shane Victorino in the lineup
They’re both switch-hitters which is great, but Victorino is faster on the bases and Rollins has more pop. I understand wanting to have a spark-plug like Rollins leading off, but with his power, he could drive in a lot more runs batting behind Victorino rather than a non-hitting catcher and the pitcher. I think Victorino is the prototypical leadoff hitter and Rollins would have more value as a 20/20 guy hitting second entrenched in the solid part of the lineup.
As a result, if I were in the Phillies’ front office this offseason, calling the shots, here’s the team I would try and assemble…
The 2009 Philadelphia Phillies
Manager: Charlie Manuel
Starting Lineup
1. Shane Victorino, CF
2. Jimmy Rollins, SS
3. Pat Burrell, LF
4. Ryan Howard, 1B
5. Chase Utley, 2B
6. Jayson Werth, RF
7. Ivan Rodriguez, C
8. Joe Crede, 3B*
9. Pitcher
Bench
Carlos Ruiz (C)
Chris Coste (C/1B/OF)
Greg Dobbs (1B/3B/OF)*
Eric Bruntlett (IF/OF)
Geoff Jenkins (OF)
Starting Rotation
1. Cole Hamels
2. Brett Myers
3. Jamie Moyer
4. Joe Blanton
5. J.A. Happ
Bullpen
Brad Lidge (Closer)
Keith Foulke (Set-up man)
J.C. Romero
Jason Isringhausen
Clay Condrey
Ryan Madson
Chad Durbin
Assessment: The focus of this offseason should be on locking up the young, arbitration-eligible talent they have (Howard, Hamels, Blanton, Werth) more so than bringing in veterans. Nevertheless, the Phillies could use upgrades at 3B and C and with the additions of Crede and Pudge, have much more flexibility at both. The rotation remains intact and one of the premiere bullpens in the National League adds some crafty veteran arms, but is generally in the same condition of a year ago. The big concern here will be the spending, as the Phillies will have to find a way to cut corners to be able to give Burrell a new deal and keep their potent lineup around for another season. If they can find the money by shipping out some veterans, they should have another great core available to them for another run in 2009, even if it means paying Adam Eaton $9 million to pitch in AAA.
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