The Hall of Fame Debates

The newest series of articles I plan on sporadically writing about will explore the Hall of Fame chances of forty active players. Obviously, a number of active players (to be detailed below) are already surefire Hall-of-Famers, and as such, their Hall-of-Fame chances need not and will not be reviewed. However, it is not that simple.

First of all, the primary requirement for any player discussed is that they must have been at least 30 years old at the start of the 2010 MLB season. That does not mean every 30+ player with at least a minimal chance of reaching the Hall-of-Fame will be discussed. Certain players, such as 31-year old Brandon Webb, are not included, as his situation is currently too murky to adequately project into the future. A number of players over the age of 30 have been excluded due to the fact that their careers are still very young and have not accumulated enough playing time for me to predict the possibility of them being worthy of the Hall-of-Fame. Additionally, a player must not have officially retired. Therefore, a player such as Carlos Delgado, who despite not playing thus far in 2010, but has not yet announced his retirement, is eligible.

The biggest issue regarding the forthcoming Hall-of-Fame debates is the question I am asking. That question is precisely: do I believe that when this player retires, their on-the-field career, statistics, and accomplishments will be worthy of a Hall-of-Fame induction. This is instrumental to understanding the debates. The question is NOT: will this player ACTUALLY BE inducted into the Hall-of-Fame. In order to understand the distinction between this question and the question I am asking, just consider a number of players: Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens….you get the point. I’m not here to speculate on the vague issue of steroids. Additionally, a player such as Roberto Alomar is another example. I still believe Alomar had a HOF-worthy career, despite the fact that, in 2009, his first year on the ballot, he fell 8 votes short of getting elected and is still not currently a Hall-of-Famer for whatever inane reasoning. I am only analyzing what the player has accomplished on the field and the impact their play has had over the course of their careers.

Additionally, the question is NOT: is this player currently a Hall-of-Famer. For the vast majority of the players debated, the answer will obviously be no. How a player projects over the remainder of their career is instrumental in the debate as to whether or not they will be worthy of the Hall-of-Fame upon retirement.

2010 Fantasy GM: Chicago Cubs

The most active teams in any given offseason are the big-market teams coming off disappointing seasons (see: Tigers and Mets). However, no team may have been more disappointed with their 2009 performance than the Chicago Cubs. Yes, the Tigers epic meltdown was surely disgraceful, but it was relatively obscured nationally. Yes, the Mets were downright disastrous as a team in 2009, but after getting eliminated on the final day of the season in 2007 and 2008, 2009 was refreshingly anti-climatic. The Cubs were once again in the national spotlight and World Series dreams were met with the reality of missing the playoffs. The Cubs dominated the regular season in 2008, then got manhandled by the Dodgers in the playoffs. 2009 was supposed to be about redemption. Instead, it was about regression.

The vaunted starting rotationg regressed. Ryan Dempster had a solid season, but it was far off from his 2008 career year. Carlos Zambrano had arguably his least productive year as a starter. Rich Harden stayed relatively healthy at the expense of being merely mediocre. The bullpen also struggled. Kevin Gregg imploded as closer, but not before costing the Cubs a handful of wins. The lineup, sans Derrek Lee, was also a major bust. Alfonso Soriano struggled to stay healthy and looked lost at the plate at times, en route to his worst offensive season. Aramis Ramirez spent extensive time on the DL. Geovany Soto redefined the sophomore slump. Kosuke Fukudome proved he was a bust. And let us not forget, how terribly awry the Milton Bradley experiment went.

The Cubs had a lot go wrong in 2009, but they’re not necessarily in for an overhaul. Soriano should bounce back at full strength next season – not that it matters, because his contract makes him immovable. Lee and Ramirez are still offensive cornerstones to build around and Theriot gives them a quality leadoff man. The rotation is also pretty good shape, and despite Gregg’s implosion, it facilitated Carlos Marmol’s rise to closer. This offseason, the Cubs will need to decide what to do with the Milton Bradley discussion, patch up the outfield and add another power bat, and figure out a way to add another top-of-the-rotation starter.

As a result, these are the moves I would make this offseason if I were Jim Hendry…

2010 Fantasy GM: New York Yankees

After the Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time in over a decade last season, there was a tremendous sense of urgency and the organization acted accordingly. In arguably the biggest offseason in baseball history, the Yankees went out and spent over $400 million in free agents. The pricey additions – starters C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett and first baseman Mark Teixeira – have paid off thus far. A year ago, the Yankees were a team on the brink with some serious question marks. Now, they’re a game away from the World Series. Sabathia and Burnett bolstered the rotation and Teixeira proved to be the missing piece in the heart of the lineup. However the Yankees’ revival was reliant on a lot more than adding a few new pieces. Veteran stalwarts Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon drastically improved upon their 2008 campaigns, A-Rod overcame his playoff failures, and Mariano Rivera continued his ninth-inning domination.

Things are once again looking rosy for the Yankees as they make their push for their 27th World Series Championship, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some concerns looming on the horizon. The Yankees will have a number of issues to address this offseason including how to address 60% of their starting rotation, what paths to take with prized arms Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, and potentially having to fill all three outfield positions for 2010. I wouldn’t expect an encore performance of the Yankees’ free-spending offseason of 2009, but  I do anticipate a series of moves to address the aforementioned issues.

As a result, these are the moves I’d make this offseason if I were Brian Cashman…

2010 Fantasy GM: Detroit Tigers

Invariably, it seems every season at least one team must have a heart-breaking late-season collapse. In 2007 and 2008, it was the Mets. However, in 2009, the Mets were so bad, they were already so far out of it by August, that it became apparent someone would have to fill their shoes and crumble down the stretch. As it would turn out, that team would be the Detroit Tigers. Last offseason, the Tigers took a new approach, building their team on fundamentals and clearing house of aging, individualistic talents (see: Gary Sheffield). An improved defense, rejuvenated pitching staff, and stronger team chemsitry seemed to be working for them. They held the division lead most of the summer, but inexcusably allowed the Twins to catch them during an abysmal September and eventually beat them in a one-game playoff for the division. What appeared to be a step in the right direction ended up being another season ending with some big question marks for the Tigers.

This offseason they’ll need to add some pieces for what is likely to be one last postseason run under Jim Leyland. The biggest issue will be finding some protection for Miguel Cabrera in the lineup. Cabrera was, at times, the only productive hitter in the lineup for spans of games. The team emphasized defense, and at the risk of doing so, lost some firepower from their lineup. They’ll need to improve their offensive output at catcher, shortstop, and designated hitter. They also will need to address what to do with the albatross contracts of Carlos Guillen, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, and Dontrelle Willis. Additionally, they’ve found some good young pitchers to anchor the rotation, but the back-end will need some veteran help. They have a lot of good, young arms still on the mend who will likely spend most of 2010 rediscovering their talents. If all goes well, they could have an excess of arms in the bullpen, but they’ll still need to figure out the back-end of the bullpen. Fernando Rodney is a free agent and they will likely need to find a new set-up man with Brandon Lyon also hitting free agency.

If I was Tigers’ GM Dave Dombrowski, here are the moves I would make this offseason…

2010 Fantasy GM: New York Mets

Last season, I attempted to play “fantasy GM” for all thirty teams. Admittedly, I only got through about half the league, but I still thought it was a worthy series of articles and, as a result, I intend on doing it again this season. Rather than attempt to re-explain the set-up, purpose, and nuances of the ensuing series of articles entitled “fantasy GM,” it’s much easier if I re-post last year’s description with some minor tweaks to it. As I stated last year:

In one a few series of articles I plan on running with this baseball offseason, “Fantasy GM” is the one I may enjoy the most. Its direct value to fantasy baseball is minimal, but this is just one of the many ways I plan to expand the horizons of this blog to go beyond fantasy baseball and into other areas of the game that allow for interactivity. My intentions are to play “fantasy GM” for all 30 teams this offseason, in which I will assume the general manager position of each franchise and, acting in the what I consider the best interest of the team, make the necessary transactions to improve the team. Of course, this also is done with a strong sense of reality. It’s in the best interest of the Royals to give Matt Holliday a 7-year, $100 million contract, but we all know they couldn’t possibly afford to do so nor would they. It’s a combination of what I think they should do with what I think they’ll actually do.

I will also attempt to include any moves that a team has already made this offseason (there haven’t been many, so this won’t be a major issue, but it’s worth noting). Also, I am starting with the teams I think will make the biggest impact and working my way down. All of the moves made by one team will overlap with another team. For instance if I have the Red Sox pick up Victor Martinez’s 2010 option, then I will not have another team sign him when I’m playing a different fantasy GM. Basically, it’s a combination of reality and fantasy. It’s as if I could control the moves for every franchise this offseason. Like I said, there isn’t much fantasy impact, but I think it’s interactive and entertaining and makes for some good arguments and discussions.

That about sums it up. So, without further adieu, let’s start with the team who should and needs to make the biggest offseason splash this winter; the same team who kicked things off last season…

The Obligatory 2009 MLB Season Predictions Post

While we once again failed to capitalize on our free time and produce an extensive fantasy baseball blog this offseason, Dave and I managed to muster up just enough ambition to put together our predictions for the upcoming season. We’ll overlap quite a bit, but there are some stark contrasts within our predictions. In this year’s edition, we project our divisional standings and playoff outcomes, take a couple of stabs at who will win each of the most prestigous regular season awards, and go team-by-team handpicking a sleeper and bust for each. Without further adieu, our highly-unlikely-to-be-even-remotely-accurate predictions for the 2009 baseball season:

Fantasy GM: Philadelphia Phillies

The Mets appeared to be the clear-cut front runners to win the National League East in 2008, but the Phillies persevered yet again, en route to winning their second straight divisional crown. The Phillies, by most accounts, had an underwhelmind offseason. They considered replacing manager Charlie Manuel after a disappointing NLDS loss, but ultimately kept the retread around for another season. They squabbled with Ryan Howard in arbitration rather than going out and adding another power bat or making a run at A-Rod. They also didn’t address their starting pitching issues. Nevertheless, their lineup was still one of the most potent in baseball, even with MVP Jimmy Rollins hurt for a portion of the year, and the rotation, led by Cole Hamels, turned in a suprisingly solid season. Hamels, Brett Myers, mid-season acquisition Joe Blanton, and the timeless Jamie Moyer gave them four very good starters down the stretch and combined with an above-average bullpen led by Brad Lidge, who didn’t blow a save all year, was enough for another trip to the playoffs.

They’ve already advanced to this year’s NLCS, but despite the marked improvement, they will have more questions to answer this offseason than last. OF Pat Burrell and SP Jamie Moyer are free agents, 1B Ryan Howard is again arbitration-eligible and the franchise will need to negotiate a long-term contract with him this offseason, and they need to figure what to do with SP Adam Eaton’s albatross of a contract, upgrades needed at 3B and C, and arbitration-eligible players like Howard, Hamels, Durbin, Victorino, and Werth. They only have Burrell to resign but will be doling out a lot of money to their younger players to keep their core intact.

If I’m the Phillies’ GM this offseason, these are the moves I would make…

The 2009 Philadelphia Phillies Fantasy GM

1) Negotiate a long-term deal with 1B Ryan Howard

The Phillies squabbled with Howard in arbitration last offseason before settling on a one-year, $10 million deal. After Jimmy Rollins up-and-down year and Chase Utley’s second-half cool down following his red-hot start, it’s become apparent that Howard is the centerpiece of this offense. Howard has unmitigated and unparallel power and could be well on his way to his 2nd NL MVP Award in the last three years. He’s homering at an extraordinary rate and should annually lead the league in that category, he’s a great hitter with runners in scoring position, can carry an offense, and even had a pretty solid year in the field. He’s a clean-cut guy and is the type of player you build a franchise around and locking him up needs to be the Phillies priority. That said, he’s going to be 29 years old next month and he has old-player skills, which means he could hit a Hafner-esque wall down the road, and who knows how long his defense will hold up. He’s already a perennial leader in strikeouts and his average has dropped significantly from .313 in 2006, .268 in 2007, and .251 this season. I’d want to lock him up, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable giving him more than 5 or 6 years of guaranteed money. Of course, this is probably his one chance at landing a prime contract at 29 already, so if you’re only giving him five years, it’s going to have to be a very enticing offer. I’d start by offering 5-years, $100 million. $20 million per season is a lot, but it’s reasonable when you’re dealing with a lefty power bat who has been a perennial MVP candidate since becoming the full-time starter. If he wants more, I’d try extending it a 6-year deal, but would be very weary about going longer than that.

Fantasy GM: Chicago White Sox

The 2008 season opened with manager Ozzie Guillen already on the hot seat and the Chicago White Sox a trendy pick for last place in the AL Central. The Indians and Tigers looked like legitimate contenders, the Twins had the pitching, and the Royals looked like they finally turned the corner. The White Sox had a one-dimensional offense in place and a lot of question marks in the field and on the pitching staff. Nevertheless, even with a career-worst year from Paul Konerko and another injury-riddled season from Joe Crede, the power-hitting veterans like Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye carried the team. They also saw rapid development from OF Carlos Quentin, an MVP candidate before his wrist injury, 2B Alexei Ramirez, a AL ROY candidate, SPs John Danks and Gavin Floyd, who quickly matured into frontline starters, and a retooled bullpen. They stayed healthy for the most part and relied on strong veteran hitters and an impressive pitching staff to win the division. They were ousted by the Rays in the ALDS and they’ll have some decisions regarding the expiring contracts of Jim Thome, Orlando Cabrera, Ken Griffey, Jr., and others.

Here’s what I would do if I was the Chicago White Sox’ GM this offseason…

The 2009 Chicago White Sox Fantasy GM

1) Exercise Option on DH Jim Thome

$13 million is a lot of money for a one-dimensional power hitter who can no longer take the field on defense, but Thome showed that, despite his age, he can still shoulder the load and help carry a team with bat. Thome still possesses brute power and has hit at least 34 HR each of his three seasons in Chicago. He’s also walked over 90 times each season and scored an impressive 93 runs last season. The White Sox already exercise his $13 million option, and it was the right move to make. Of the team’s one-dimensional power hitters, he’s still got the most raw power and is the most experience veteran presence. He shores up the DH position and keeps that powerful heart of the lineup intact for one more season.

Fantasy GM: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks went to the NLCS in 2007 and expected a return trip in 2008 with the addition of SP Dan Haren and return of SP Randy Johnson. They got by with one of the worst lineups in baseball in 2007, but the lineup just wasn’t able to put it together again in 2008, even with the addition of Adam Dunn. The lineup continually struggled in the second half along with the back-end of the bullpen and it spelled the Diamondbacks’ collapse. At times, they looked like the best team in baseball, but when they went cold, they often looked like one of the worst teams in baseball. It was too much up-and-down in a strong National League to be able to pull out another playoff appearance without a strong lineup or steady bullpen. The Diamondbacks have one of the deepest pitching staffs, but they need to find a solution to the closer role and they need to strengthen the lineup. One thing they definitely need to do is address what to do with Mark Reynolds, whose power bat was so valuable in the Diamondbacks’ anemic offense that they let him play everyday despite leading the league in errors at 3B and setting the major-league single-season strikeout rate. They need to put together a stronger lineup so they don’t have to rely on any single hitter.

Here’s what I would do if I’m the Arizona Diamondbacks’ GM this offseason…

The 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks Fantasy GM

1) Resign SP Randy Johnson

Johnson was effective in 2007 in 10 starts before suffering arm injuries, but he came back strong in 2008, staying healthy and remaining effective. Johnson looked his best since his first stint in Arizona prior to being dealt to the Yankees. Johnson made 30 starts on the season, throwing a solid 184.0 IP, and avoided the DL. His pitches showed better movement than ever before to account for lost velocity and as he harnessed the control of his new arsenal of pitches, his strikeout rate dramatically increased down the stretch. His ERA went from 5.23 in the first half to 2.41 in the second half and, despite a late-season injury causing him to miss a start, he looked like a durable middle-of-the-rotation starter at age 44. He’s a high injury risk and very good chance to regress with all the mileage on his arm, but he had a very promising finish. I’d give him a one-year deal and hope he can continue to dominate as he wills himself to 300 career wins. You’d be overpaying for a #3/#4 starter by giving him 1-year, $9 million, but you’d be getting a lefty staple and veteran and one of the best back-end pitchers in the league if he could stay healthy. A regression is likely, but he’s still got good enough stuff to be effective if his arm holds up.

Fantasy GM: Tampa Bay Rays

Everyone knew the Rays had a bright future going into 2008, but very few expected them to reach their potential so quickly and surpass the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays en route to winning the first divisional title in franchise history. Not only was it the first division title in franchise history, it was the first time they ever finished about 4th place and it was also their first-ever winning season. The Rays have one of the best managers in baseball, one of the youngest lineups in the league, and a dilemma that the other 29 teams would kill for – too many good young starting pitchers and a bullpen so deep that they can’t even convert them to relievers. The Rays will have a few issues to address in the offseason including the options on a couple of outfielders in Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli, moving one or two of their young SPs, and perhaps pursuing a big veteran bat to insert into the heart of the lineup.

If I’m the Rays’ GM this offseason, these are the moves I would make…

The 2009 Tampa Bay Rays Fantasy GM

1) Exercise option on OF Carl Crawford

When healthy, Crawford is the most important piece of the Rays’ lineup. 2008 was a down year for the 27-year old, but he was still an above-average #2 hitter, a dangerous lefty bat, and one the best base stealers in the AL. He’s got speed to burn, can hit for average, and plays a very good left field. He is a homegrown talent that was brought up through the ranks and has become a vocal centerpiece for this young team. He’s still young himself with perhaps his best years ahead of him still, so that is why I’d make this the first move of the offseason. Crawford’s option is for $8.25 million this season, which would be well below market value. I’d exercise the option and immediately offer a contract extension, because if he hits free agency next offseason, the Rays will unlikely be able to match the offers he’ll get from big-market clubs. Picking up the option helps keep the speedy, high-upside top of the order intact for a very fair price.